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X-Traders Guide – Week 25

February 9, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

An extended show covering Cheltenham Festival, which forms the 1st part in a 2 part special (the 2nd week before the festival)

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show Andy Richmond who lives and breaths national hunt racing and is regular expert for Racing UK. In part one the pair explore the 4 championship races and why and who you may oppose at the head of the market.

Also they looking into how trading the festival is different to other everyday meetings and offer a few tips and tricks on how the markets work, plus offer advice on what to do in playing in-running and how you can short cut your research with the right stats book.

Finally; the announcement of a calibration of horse racing trading workshop in association with Proform Racing Software (the preferred choice of Racing UK), the seminar will be held on April 28th at the competitive price of £120 and you can secure your place for just £40 deposit. But don’t delay places are filling fast. Grab you place on the racing seminar

This Weeks Show

  • Review of last weekend Superbowl & Six Nations
  • Cheltenham Festival Championship races market pointers
  • Trading the festival – tips and tricks
  • In-running at the festival
  • Horse racing trading seminar
  • Some propositional bets
  • Some In-Play numbers to consider
  • My best bet for the game

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Paul Jones – Cheltenham Festival Guide is out on 24th and is recommended on the Show – Grab a £5 discount with this code: PROX – visit Weatherby

You can follow Andy on twitter @bickley14

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Six Nations 2012 Betting Preview – Week 1

February 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment

This year’s renewal of the Six Nations looks wide open and week I matches are equally tough to call, but if you get creative you can cover more angles and still obtain decent prices.

France v Italy

I feel France will win, talking about stating the obvious! The problem I always have with France is which one will turn up on the day, personally I think they will cover the 19 points handicap but I would like some kind of insurance if they don’t.

I think dutching them to win by 11 – 30 points is best angle in the winning margin market and that pays 1.86 at best prices and if you want to ramp that up you could knock off either end.  Dutching either 16-30 point or 11-25 point winning margin pays 2.43 at best prices. Personally I would go for the safe option and take the 20 point spread that France win between a 11- 30 point margin.

Scotland v England

Some well known ex-players and pundits have totally written off England stating that they will only beat Italy in this year’s tournament. I can see Scotland continuing the trend at Murrayfield, (unbeaten in the last 3 encounters) but I find it hard to go against my heart and back against England.

So I have to switch my thought process and try and assess the game and the conclusion is that I dont think either team will win by a double figure margin. If you dutch Scotland winning margins 1-5 & 6-10 points with England winning margins 1-5 & 6-10 points pays 4/6 (1.67) at best prices, if you want to ramp it up over even money you could drop the England 6-10 points.

Ireland v Wales

My thought process for Sunday’s game is similar to the Calcutta Cup clash, although when I priced up the match I had Ireland at -7 points based on the assumption that the pack will dominate the game. I may use the in-play markets on Betfair before deciding to get involved with the handicap market (-4.5 points on Betfair). But I certainly wouldn’t put off anybody repeating the margin bet highlighted in the Scotland v England, the prices are the same 4/6 (1.67) of either team winning by 1 -10 points and you can drop the 6-10 points if you want to ramp that up over even money.

In Summary

In a tough opening week I am sort of sitting on the fence, you could even say that I am doing that in France match with such a huge spread. Having said that with the number of markets being offered these days by bookmakers there is no reason why you have to stick to the traditional route, if you feel other routes will provide you an in.

I will be back in week 2 when hopefully I will get an idea on the tournament will shape up.

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X-Traders Guide – Week 24

February 3, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

Superbowl XLVI is the main topic of the show with New England Patriots taking on New York Giants on Sunday

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show Andrew Broker from Bettingexpert.com who himself is a Giants fans, so has few conflict of interest when trying to find the best betting angles on the game. Andrew has crunched the number and give you the market pointers that you should be considered and all the stats and trends that you need

Finally; we look at the big premier league match between Chelsea & Arsenal and how the winners and relegation markets are shaping following Man City’s defeat on Wednesday.

This Weeks Show

  • How to approach betting on the Super Bowl
  • Basic numbers for this particular Super Bowl
  • Some betting trends for the game
  • Some propositional bets
  • Some In-Play numbers to consider
  • My best bet for the game

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Andrew’s Superbowl facts & trends

http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/betting-trends-statistics-super-bowl-46-new-england-patriots-new-york-giants

And here’s the link to Team Rankings red zone data. A great site and good source of stats for traders.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

You can read Andrews blog at www.bettingexpert.com/blog

You can follow Andrew on twitter @AndrewBexpert

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X-Traders Guide – Week 23

January 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

Rugby League is the subject of discussion in this weeks X-Traders Guide, the new Super League season is just over a week away and as Betfair grows so does the opportunities in the rugby league markets.

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show by fellow full-time X-Trader Dave Edwards a self confessed Rugby League nut and he will be sharing his thoughts on the sport and his ambitions for 2012 (his first full year professional)

The X-Movers has made a great start to 2012 and Matt will talk about plans for the summer and how you can get involved, finally the FA Cup 4th round is also covered as well as the transfer deadline.

This Weeks Show

  • The X-Movers January Results
  • Superleague 2012 & tips on trading the sport
  • The FA Cup 4th Round market pointers

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

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A dot of bother!

January 23, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Ascot racecourse made the headlines for all the wrong reasons in many of the Sunday Newspapers after sticking a small orange dot on racegoers who had not got the new dress code quite right for the premier enclosure. Thankfully; they acted quickly to squash this with a full refund to all those attendees of the premier enclosure.

Personally speaking I have no issues with any dress code, I actually like looking smart when I go racing. Although I must admit I never go in winter, mainly because I prefer flat racing to jumps and I tend to go on a spur of the moment if the weather is warm and sunny. My biggest problem is the cost of getting in the courses in the first place, especially the smaller courses like my local (Leicester). For tomorrow’s fixture starts at £12:00 a ticket to me that is just too much for the quality of racing.

The Theme Park Way

I believe the smaller courses like Leicester would increase revenue if they adopted a slightly different approach. I notice that most theme parks offer season pass tickets. Leicester with 6 National Hunt meetings, I think they would be better off offering a NH season pass for say £25.00 for all 6 meetings. This makes the entrance just over £4.00 (if your go all 6 meetings), but at the end of day, plenty would buy the ticket and not go to all meetings.

I would have a guess that Leicester doesnt attract more than 300 paying guests in January & February, it’s overall average attendance for the year is around 1,800 and with plenty of meetings during the summer months, I think that will ramp the overall average.

Following the revamp of the course Towcester offered free admission, although they have introduce a £10 charge on selected meetings. I remember speaking with Kevin Ackerman about the increase in numbers attending the meetings compared to when they charged admission fee’s. He said they had well over 100% increase in attendances since going free and that they had to introduce an entrance fee on Boxing Day & Easter Sunday because the course was bursting at the seems for those days.

I met Kevin before the my very first trading workshop which I held at Towcester back in 2009 and he told me that the course turnover was expected to exceed £2 million that year, but it was the increase corporate activities that paid dividends.

In Summary

It seems that racing goes from one PR disaster to another and they need to get the balance right between people who want to go racing for the love of the sport and those who want to go for the love of drink.

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X-Traders Guide – Week 22

January 18, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

Tennis Trading is the subject of discussion in this weeks X-Traders Guide, if you want to get stuck into trading tennis in 2012 then this show is a must as its overflowing idea’s and snippets of information on the markets.

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show by Scott Ferguson former Head of Betfair Education who combines both punting & trading skills to gain an edge in the markets, Scott also writes a very informative blog called Sport Is Made For Betting

Scott talks through the fundamentals to successful tennis trading, advice on market research and how note making can pay dividends in the long-term, Also discussed the difference between the tours and Grand Slams over other tournaments. Plus resistance points, using the right stats and profiling the players can all help you get and edge.

This Weeks Show

  • How you trade the tennis markets
  • Any tips to help novices get started
  • Importance of profiling players
  • Differences between WTA & ATP – Grand Slams & Other events
  • Identifying resistance points

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Get Scotts Australian Open Bets

You can follow Scott’s Australian Open Bets at The Shark over the next 10 days

You can follow Scott on twitter @borisranting

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Pakistan v England Test Series

January 16, 2012 By Leave a Comment

England look to maintain their number one status in the test arena when they take on Pakistan in Dubai.

Injuries to their bowling attack has made the waters a little muddy.  Unlike the rest of test match cricket played around the globe there is a strong draw bias in the UAE and that has to be the first place you look when considering getting involved with any series trading.

Currently the draw is on offer at 3.60 on Betfair for a drawn series and that could be a touch of value from a punting point of view.

Many leading pundits are predicting a tough start for England, but we know they have enough in their locker to grind out a result if needed.

Trading is all about timing!

When it comes to trading the markets you’re not looking to predict the outcome, but you’re on the lookout to get the best risk v reward opportunity in the market. From a trading point of view backing at 3.60 with a view of trading out lower doesn’t offer that opportunity.

Successful trading is all about timing and we think at some point that price of the draw in the series will trade close to 5.0 if not above.  You could make a case for laying the draw and then backing at the higher price, but we feel the draw could trade lower than 3.0 at some point as well. The problem we have here is knowing which one will hit first and for that reason it makes sense to sit and wait for the opportunity to present itself.

Suggested Trading Positions

  • Position One – Back the Drawn Series at 5.0 or above with a stop loss at 8.0, look to trade out at current 3.60 price.
  • Position Two – Lay the Drawn Series at 2.80 or below witha stop loss at 2.30, look to trade out at current 3.60 price.

We will be looking to either position at some point during the first two days of the opening test, at some point a team will get on top and that should give us the opportunity to open a position in the market.

Gareth Notton’s Bets

Before Christmas regular X-Trader Gareth Notton suggested the following bets on the X-Traders Guide podcast.

  1. England Top Series Batsman – Andrew Strauss 6.0 with Bet Victor & Ian Bell 6.50 generally available.
  2. Pakistan Top Series Batsman – Younis Khan 4.50 generally available.
  3. England Top Wicket Taker – Graeme Swann 3.0 generally available.
  4. Pakistan Top Wicket Taker – Sajeed Ajmaa 3.25 generally available.

Gareth also thinks that Pakistan are excellent value at 4.10 for the first test and Pro Trader Tip thinks  they could certainly trade lower during the first days play.

Trade with the X-Traders

The X-Traders at Pro X Trading will be trading this series in the main trading room, if you would like to do the same then join the ‘Exchange Club’

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All About Timing!

January 16, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Centaur Group went into liquidation last week and I certainly feel for the employees who have losted their jobs in tough times and I hope that the investors money was ring-fenced.

The Centaur Academy had a plush trading room in London and I guess there overheads wouldn’t be cheap. If you have large overheads, they need to be covered and I couldn’t believe my eyes that they was charging around £1000 for a football trading course. I guess they was targeting the financial district that are used to paying £1000′s for financial trading workshops.

I charge £120 for my football trading workshops (a few places left for my only one scheduled in 2012), I actually think the information that give out is worth more, but I only look to cover the potential trading profits I would get on a Saturday if filling the day.

Secure you place on 28th January workshop

Why did the business model fail?

I have puzzled quite a bit over the weekend on why this business model failed, it certainly wasnt down to the experts that Centaur recruited as the put together a group of very sharp minds. The knowledge and the skillset was all in-place to exploit the markets from a trading perpectus for the investment fund.

As for the education side at their city offices, I think that was bad timing. My question is why open up expensive offices to teach people how to trade when you can do remotely through online education in a more cost effective way.

In recent years Betfair has been recruiting European based punters, many of which don’t no anything about UK horse racing and the well of novice traders has certainly dried up in the racing markets. It’s not the gold rush of a decade ago!

I would guess the decline in liquidity of the racing markets and interest in general would have left a few trading stations empty on a daily basis as more and more professional traders turned to football, tennis & cricket.

In Summary

I feel sad that this venture didn’t work out, because to me sports based trading is a far better investment opportunity than anything linked to the financial or stock markets. Centaur had a dream, they wanted to make art of sports trading  have the same recognition as the stock market trading.

However; most sports traders (myself included) come from a punting (gambling) background and I just feel this venture was big odds against punt from the start.

If you would like to get into sports trading you can join my mentroing program at Pro X Trading

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Generating Income Streams

January 15, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Its been about a month since I signed up to ‘The Elevation Group’ run by Mike Dillard and I have been working through the 2011 lessons and I have drawn up some early conclusions that I want to share with you.

Generating Additional Income.

One thing is quite evident for reviewing what is on the table with EVG you’re not really going to benefit too much if you’re only source of income is tradional salary paid job that offers the same (safe) income stream each calendar month.

I maybe able to help?

To compound income, you need income streams and I maybe able to help you generate some kind of 2nd income that you could look to re-invest in other area’s that could produce passive income streams.

Quite a few of my ‘Exchange Club’ members have followed me on to EVG as they’re looking to make their trading profits work harder for them and I will be setting up a Project 138 (EVG) members area on this blog so we can discuss what we’re learning.

I still have a limited number of places left in the club you want to take up the option to learn how to trade the sports markets successfully.

My 3 Step Plan

  • Step 1 – Look for alternative ways such as Automation to generate extra profits on Betfair
  • Step 2 – Investment these extra profits in opportunities that could generate passive income streams
  • Step 3 – Use these passive income streams to cover family running cost and free up more funds for Step 2

I am looking at horses racing markets first for Automation and couple of my lists that I provide my members of ‘The X-Movers’ service can be semi-automated. Since Jan 2nd i have been posting the results of these trades on the movers section of Pro X Trading.

Internally I have an idea on how much the Movers service will generate during 2012, I am not a big fan of making profit claims, do the hard work and the results will take care of themselves. That said I do believe the profits will be healthy and take no more than 20-30 minutes of day to take advantage of this work.

In Summary

If you’re looking to generate possible 2nd Income Streams that you can re-invest in other areas then teaming up with the rest of ‘The X-Traders’ at Pro X Trading could be a wise choice in 2012.

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X-Traders Guide – Week 21

January 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

The guide back in its normal weekly slot following Christmas & New Year

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show by fellow X-Trader Matty Cobb who shares his thoughts on how he reach the point of considering giving up his current career to become a full-time sports trader.

Matty explains how working with other traders in the ‘Exchange Club’ has really helped him transform his trading skills, plus he gives an insight on his ambitions for 2012.

The Premier League Winners & Relegation markets are also discussed as well as the latest betting exchange news.

This Weeks Show

  • Going full-time
  • Ambitions for 2012
  • Premier League Winners & Relegation Markets
  • Betting Exchange News
  • Pro X Trading News

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.


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