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X-Traders Guide – Week 33

April 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

With it being Grand National week, Matt opens the show with his snippets on how to narrow the field down

The main chunk of the show is about trading mindsets and Matt welcomes back to the show Steve Ward who shares his thoughts and wisdom on the subject ahead of his forthcoming TRADERMIND Training Course

The pair recap on Time Management & Focus from previous weeks, plus managing expectations and how to control your trading in a not to be missed show.

This Weeks Show

  • Grand National Snippets
  • Tradermind Course
  • Time Management
  • Keeping Your Focus
  • Managing Expectations
  • How to control your trading

Grab 40% discount on Tradermind

You can grab a 40% discount on Tradermind course if you’re serious about taking your trading to a new levels then having the right mindsets is key (Discount Code: MFTM12)

6 webinars, e-coaching, 10 x mental training downloads, pdf workbooks, follow-up mentoring

View a recording of 2011 Tradermind

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

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Super 15 – Week 8 Betting & Trading Overview.

April 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Blues vs Sharks

No real angle with either the straight betting or hcp lines (2.5) i think it could go either way and could easily be only a few points in it. There may be an angle to back both teams winning margin under 1-12 but for me i would want at least 4.0 which is not currently available.

I think the best bet is to back the sharks on the hcp +2.5 at approx 1.9

No bet for me.

Force vs Waratahs

The Waratahs go in at around 1.7 favs here, and although i think they will win i don’t feel there is value in the price, the hcp lines don’t offer much either at 3.5.  I will put in a price at 1.9 on the Tahs and hope to get it matched in play.

1pt Waratahs @ 1.9 hope to be matched in play.

Crusaders vs Stormers

As i have mentioned already this season the Crusaders have not in my opinion shown anywhere near the form of previous seasons, to back that up i have never seen Dan Carter shank a penalty kick as badly as he did last week for a very long time.  They go into this game fav’s at 1.7 approx. No value for me there, huge value for the Stormers though at 2.5 or better. I will be taking the Stormers hcp on offer of 3.5. at around 1.9

1pt Stormers +3.5 @ 1.9 approx.

Brumbies vs Rebels

The Brumbies have been inconsistent and The Rebels can do anything if they have a good day, so i can’t make a call on this one as no market really stands out. I Think the Brumbies win but can’t back them at the current 1.5 being offered. I feel the hcp line is asking for too much to offer anything.

No Official Bet.

Cheetahs vs Chiefs

I have really enjoyed watching the Cheetahs play their rugby so far this season, credit to them in their approach.  Saying that i think the Chiefs are a big price at 1.8 to win and will be expecting them to overcome the -2.5 hcp at around 1.9 with relative ease.

1pt Chiefs -1.5 @ 1.9 approx..

Lions vs Bulls

Bulls go in big favs and probably a fair price @ 1.25.  I feel they will cover the 10 pt hcp line without too much problem and am happy to take the 1.9 available

1pt Bulls -9.5 @ 1.9 approx.      

Filed Under: Betfair Trading

Superleague Preview – Catalan v Warrington

April 9, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Today’s Super League game see the Warrington Wolves hopping over the Channel to face Catalan Dragons which can be seen live on Sky Sports 1 at 3pm.

The French outfit have come on leaps and bounds over the last season or so and the locals are enjoying some good Rugby League from their local side and their position in the table is certainly no fluke and is the reward for some perseverance, good recruiting and hard work.

A win today would see them leapfrog their guests and consolidate their status as a top six side this season.

Warrington have made a sketchy start by their own high standards and some of their performances have been strewn with schoolboy errors that must have infuriated coach Tony Smith. The Wolves will be looking to eliminate those errors and move on in their quest for top spot and that will certainly be aided by the return of skipper Adrian Morley to name just one from a handful of players that were rested for the victory over Widnes.

Home advantage has played a part for the Catalans as some Super League teams do not have the luxury that sees football teams arrive days before an overseas clash to stay in a top hotel and prepare for a few days before a game. That advantage has been somewhat diminished today as the Catalans themselves have had to travel to the UK and back over the last few days.

On The Account

I feel that the Catalan’s home advantage has been factored in although as mentioned a quick turnaround over the Easter period has put paid to its usual bearing on a fixture and I think that Warrington to win the game at Even money with Ladbrokes is good value and will be today’s account bet.

Filed Under: Superleague

X-Traders Guide – Week 32

April 9, 2012 By 1 Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

Keeping you focus is on the agenda this week as Matt talks through the difficulties novice traders face in doing the basics well without the resistance to change

He explains why successful trading is boring (groundhog day) and why many novice traders lose focus and only tend to concentrate on new stuff or seeking at the new angles. Also how core skills can be transferred into other sports with a look back at the Masters.

He also talks through the market differences between the Premier League and forthcoming Euro2012

Finally; the doors are about to close on the X-Movers and X-Traders with a few spaces left, find out why you should grab those spaces

This Weeks Show

  • X-Movers News
  • Pro Trader Tip News
  • Keeping Your Focus
  • Core Trading skills
  • Euro 2012 markets

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Filed Under: Podcasts

Superleague Preview – St Helens v Wigan

April 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Rugby’s Manchester United v Liverpool is today’s focus and the St Helens v Wigan game can be seen live on Sky Sports 2 at 2.45pm.

A sell-out crowd will be crammed in to Langtree Park to see the old, bitter rivals square up to each other for the first time this season.

The Warriors have injury worries and will be without several regular first teamers and Shaun Wane will have to shuffle his side about to try and come up with the right balance to counter a rejuvenated Saints who will be spurred on by a boisterous home crowd.

A victory would see St Helens move to within one point of their old foes following and it would cap a great return to form following an awful start to the season. Saints go into today’s games with confidence high following victories over Leeds and Warrington and a victory over Wigan today would see them back in the thick of things at the top end of the table.

No doubt Saints will come out all guns blazing although Wigan cannot be ruled out as, despite injury problems, they still have a quality team. There’ll be no need for team talks to the local lads like Sam Tomkins as they know how much this game means to the towns of St Helens and Wigan and both will be desperate to gain a win over their bitter rivals.

On the Account

St Helens are, at the time of writing, trading at 1.66 and I feel this is a little short despite factoring in home advantage and Wigan’s injury concerns.  On that basis, I would look to take St Helens on and close out in play around the evens mark if the opportunity arises. It’s a fixture where the form book can go out of the window and hopefully Wigan can cope and push the Saints price out in our favour.

Filed Under: Superleague

Super 15 – Week 7 Betting & Trading Overview.

April 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Hurricanes vs Sharks

Difficult game to call either way as the odds and hcp lines suggest ( both around evens and hcp line is .5-1.5 ! )
But this may provide an opportunity to lay both teams at 1.5 in play if it hits at some stage during the 1st half. I think the value is with the Sharks but only just.

The over/unders is asking for too many points for me but it may be close to that.

No bet for me.

Reds vs Brumbies

The Reds have a tough home game to follow their difficult road trip. They are around 1.7 favs here and even as a fan i would not be backing them at this price just yet, i want to see a strong performance first and doubt it will be this weekend. Overs is asking for 53 + points and it could go either way in this one.

The value is with the Brumbies outright or on the hcp +3.5

My bet will be the Brumbies +3.5 @ around evens. 1pt

Force vs Chiefs

Seems like one of the easier games to call this round ( famous last words) But the Chiefs are value at 1.5 going into this away game for them and the hcp line is attractive at -4.5 i can see them winning by at least a converted try. Not sure about the points market as it could go either way.

1pt Chiefs -4.5 at around evens.

Note betfair only have the 5.5 hcp available currently which should provide you with better odds but obviously slightly higher risk.

Highlanders vs Stormers

This top of the table clash should be another close game and presents several opportunities. Again the lay at 1.5 of Both teams is an option. Both teams are around evens to win and the value is with the Stormers in my opinion, i can’t see either team winning by much so the winning margin under 7 is one possibility, I will side with the Stormers +1.5 at around 1.9 but will not call an official bet on this one.

No Official Bet.

Cheetahs vs Lions

Cheetahs go in 1.4 favs in this game and they are slight value at this price i believe. I can see them overcoming the hcp line of -5.5 with relative ease. ( i see them winning by at least 10pts)

1pt Cheetahs -5.5 @ around 1.9 or better.

Bulls vs Crusaders

The Bulls go in slight favs in this game at around 1.7 and i feel they are value at this price but will try to get around 1.9 in play, this clearly has a chance of missing if the Bulls start well and run away with it for the full 80mins but i feel its worth a go.

1pt Bulls at 1.9 approx * this will more than likely be matched in play.

Filed Under: Betfair Trading

Superleague Preview – Broncos v Wakefield

March 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Today’s Super League game sees Wakefield head down the M1 to take on London Broncos at The Stoop in a game that can be seen live on Sky Sports 1 at 5.45pm.

We’ve been spoilt with televised top of the table clashes over the last couple of weeks and today’s game gives us a chance to see two teams battling at the bottom to climb up the table.

London have won only once this season registering a 42-16 home victory over fellow strugglers Castleford and whilst visitors Wakefield have notched only two wins themselves, they come into this game on the back of an excellent 32-22 victory over Catalan Dragons.

Prior to that they were unfortunate not to take the points against high fliers Warrington and went down by only two points in a 32-30 reverse and whilst they’re in the bottom half of the table, their defensive record is not much worse than teams in the top half of the table.

The same can’t be said for the Broncos who have shipped in 276 points in their opening eight games and only Super League new boys Widnes have an inferior defence.

Wakefield have had a tricky set of opening fixtures and whilst they have lost five, they haven’t been really thumped by anyone and boss Richard Agar feels they are making good progress and heading in the right direction whilst London seem to be struggling as their defensive record shows.

This is a game that Wakefield will feel they can take the two points back up North and further build on last week’s good win and their great performance against Warrington.

 On The Account

I’m looking at London’s defensive frailties and feel that the Time Of 1st Away Try Under 17:59 at 1.83 with Blue Sq. is a fair shout and should see a return.

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X-Traders Guide – Week 31

March 30, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Betfair Trading Podcast

Time Management is on the agenda this week as Matt talks through the difficulties novice traders face juggling work, family & lifestyle commitments with the quest of mastering the markets.

He explains how to maximise your trading time by focusing on the markets and building you calendar around the sports or leagues you know most about rather than trading any market when you have a few spare hours

He also talks through best practices on time-decay in the football markets and the options you have when considering trading this technique

Finally; the doors are about to close on the X-Movers and X-Traders with a few spaces left, find out why you should grab those spaces

This Weeks Show

  • X-Movers News
  • Pro Trader Tip News
  • Time Management
  • Time Decay in Football

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Filed Under: Podcasts

Superleague Preview – Warrington v St Helens

March 30, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Another heavyweight clash this evening sees Warrington entertain St Helens in a game which can be seen live on Sky Sports 1 at 8pm.

Both teams came out on top of last weekend’s big games against Wigan and Leeds respectively and confidence will be high in both camps. Warrington were two point winners at Wigan last Friday although it was another performance far from the Wolves’ best and they haven’t really hit their top mark at all this season. That said, it’s the equivalent of a football team playing well below par and grinding out wins and Warrington will be happy to have the two points from the Wigan game.

St Helens blew Leeds out of the water on Sunday evening with a performance and result that I, along with many, certainly didn’t see coming. Looking back on the game, Saints were certainly good value for their win and played some good stuff but I think they were aided with the fact that Leeds just didn’t show up and were surprisingly poor opposition on the day.

 Warrington have Garreth Carvell and Mickey Higham available again following injury and suspension, although big Ben Westwood is on the naughty boy step for this game after forgetting that you can neither tackle players around their head or smash them in the face.

Saints are pretty much at full strength meaning they’ll have quality interchanges to utilise during the game and that may well come into it.

It’s a tricky one to call outright in my opinion with both teams coming into this game on the back of big wins and confidence high. That said, Warrington have been far from their best and whilst I’m taking nothing away from Saints’ effort last Sunday, Leeds just didn’t show up.

Last week aside, Saints’ defence has been suspect on numerous occasions so far this season and it’ll be back under pressure this evening from an attacking Wolves side, but Saints also have the ammunition and attacking skills to test their opponent’s line.

On the Account

This could well turn into a tight tussle similar to the Wigan v Warrington game last week and I’d recommend going into this game with a lay bet on Warrington (1.55 at the time of writing) with the opinion that a tight game will give an opportunity in play to green up and take a profit from the trade.

Filed Under: Superleague Tagged With: , , , , ,

Super 15 – Week 6 Betting & Trading Overview.

March 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

This round seemed like it would be a tough week on paper before i had seen what the markets were offering and on reflection presents us with some good opportunities.

Highlanders vs Rebels

Difficult game to call from a betting perspective, the 1.3 suggests a home win and i agree with that but i would like better odds. My tip would be to wait to see if you can get better odds in play. The hcp lines are 7.5. Beale is back for the Rebels. I can’t see an angle with any value so no bet for me on this one. I may try a lay pre match with a hope to back them later if the Rebels can start strongly.
If pushed it would be the Highlanders -7.5 @ 1.9or better

No official bet.

Hurricanes vs Cheetahs

The Cheetahs have played some entertaining rugby so far this season and i expect that continue this weekend. It may be a game with uncontested scrums as the cheetahs are missing some props…The hcp line is around 9 and for me offers no real value either way. I feel this is an overs game but would like to see the conditions first.

1pt over 48.5 @ 1.9 or better if dry.

Chiefs vs Waratahs at Hamilton on Sat Mar 31

The Chiefs go into this game at 1.5 fav’s, and the hcp offers 4.5. I feel its a perfect game to lay both teams at 1.5 as it could easily have both teams exchanging the lead, i would prefer to get my first lay in before half time. My bet is for the Chiefs to overcome the 4.5 hcp at 1.9 or better.

1pt Chiefs -4.5 @ 1.9 or better.

Brumbies vs Sharks

The betting suggests a close game with both teams around evens. The hcp line at 1.5-2.5 @ around 1.9 or better offers the obvious choice for me for the Brumbies.

1pt Brumbies + 1.5 @ 1.9 approx.

Force vs Reds at Perth

The Reds are back in oz after an horrific trip to SA and the news isn’t getting any better in a hurry. As they are my team i hate going against them normally but can’t see them getting past anyone at the moment. The betting sees both around evens. And the hcp line is 1.5.

1pt Force + 1.5 @ 1.9 approx.

Lions vs Crusaders

The Crusaders have been less than impressive for me and although they go in 1.3 favs against the Lions, This will be the best chance the home team has had to cause an upset for a long time. Great opp to lay the fav’s here and trade out at a higher price during the game.

1pt Lions + 8.5 @ 1.9 or better.

Stormers vs Bulls

Stormers go in slight favs here, and although i can’t find a market with any value pre game it could be a case of going against the best starter again with a 1.5 lay on both IF you get one before half time.

No official bet

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