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Six Nations 2012 Betting Preview – Week 1

February 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment

This year’s renewal of the Six Nations looks wide open and week I matches are equally tough to call, but if you get creative you can cover more angles and still obtain decent prices.

France v Italy

I feel France will win, talking about stating the obvious! The problem I always have with France is which one will turn up on the day, personally I think they will cover the 19 points handicap but I would like some kind of insurance if they don’t.

I think dutching them to win by 11 – 30 points is best angle in the winning margin market and that pays 1.86 at best prices and if you want to ramp that up you could knock off either end.  Dutching either 16-30 point or 11-25 point winning margin pays 2.43 at best prices. Personally I would go for the safe option and take the 20 point spread that France win between a 11- 30 point margin.

Scotland v England

Some well known ex-players and pundits have totally written off England stating that they will only beat Italy in this year’s tournament. I can see Scotland continuing the trend at Murrayfield, (unbeaten in the last 3 encounters) but I find it hard to go against my heart and back against England.

So I have to switch my thought process and try and assess the game and the conclusion is that I dont think either team will win by a double figure margin. If you dutch Scotland winning margins 1-5 & 6-10 points with England winning margins 1-5 & 6-10 points pays 4/6 (1.67) at best prices, if you want to ramp it up over even money you could drop the England 6-10 points.

Ireland v Wales

My thought process for Sunday’s game is similar to the Calcutta Cup clash, although when I priced up the match I had Ireland at -7 points based on the assumption that the pack will dominate the game. I may use the in-play markets on Betfair before deciding to get involved with the handicap market (-4.5 points on Betfair). But I certainly wouldn’t put off anybody repeating the margin bet highlighted in the Scotland v England, the prices are the same 4/6 (1.67) of either team winning by 1 -10 points and you can drop the 6-10 points if you want to ramp that up over even money.

In Summary

In a tough opening week I am sort of sitting on the fence, you could even say that I am doing that in France match with such a huge spread. Having said that with the number of markets being offered these days by bookmakers there is no reason why you have to stick to the traditional route, if you feel other routes will provide you an in.

I will be back in week 2 when hopefully I will get an idea on the tournament will shape up.

Filed Under: Betfair Trading Tagged With: , , , ,

Pakistan v England Test Series

January 16, 2012 By Leave a Comment

England look to maintain their number one status in the test arena when they take on Pakistan in Dubai.

Injuries to their bowling attack has made the waters a little muddy.  Unlike the rest of test match cricket played around the globe there is a strong draw bias in the UAE and that has to be the first place you look when considering getting involved with any series trading.

Currently the draw is on offer at 3.60 on Betfair for a drawn series and that could be a touch of value from a punting point of view.

Many leading pundits are predicting a tough start for England, but we know they have enough in their locker to grind out a result if needed.

Trading is all about timing!

When it comes to trading the markets you’re not looking to predict the outcome, but you’re on the lookout to get the best risk v reward opportunity in the market. From a trading point of view backing at 3.60 with a view of trading out lower doesn’t offer that opportunity.

Successful trading is all about timing and we think at some point that price of the draw in the series will trade close to 5.0 if not above.  You could make a case for laying the draw and then backing at the higher price, but we feel the draw could trade lower than 3.0 at some point as well. The problem we have here is knowing which one will hit first and for that reason it makes sense to sit and wait for the opportunity to present itself.

Suggested Trading Positions

  • Position One – Back the Drawn Series at 5.0 or above with a stop loss at 8.0, look to trade out at current 3.60 price.
  • Position Two – Lay the Drawn Series at 2.80 or below witha stop loss at 2.30, look to trade out at current 3.60 price.

We will be looking to either position at some point during the first two days of the opening test, at some point a team will get on top and that should give us the opportunity to open a position in the market.

Gareth Notton’s Bets

Before Christmas regular X-Trader Gareth Notton suggested the following bets on the X-Traders Guide podcast.

  1. England Top Series Batsman – Andrew Strauss 6.0 with Bet Victor & Ian Bell 6.50 generally available.
  2. Pakistan Top Series Batsman – Younis Khan 4.50 generally available.
  3. England Top Wicket Taker – Graeme Swann 3.0 generally available.
  4. Pakistan Top Wicket Taker – Sajeed Ajmaa 3.25 generally available.

Gareth also thinks that Pakistan are excellent value at 4.10 for the first test and Pro Trader Tip thinks  they could certainly trade lower during the first days play.

Trade with the X-Traders

The X-Traders at Pro X Trading will be trading this series in the main trading room, if you would like to do the same then join the ‘Exchange Club’

Filed Under: Cricket Trading Tagged With: , , , ,

Market Over Reaction in the Red Zone (NFL)

September 26, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Back from my holidays now and I have picked up on my research on the NFL markets, before I get into the meat of this post, my knowledge of the sport is quite limited. However I do feel there are great trading opportunities and towards the backend of last season, I started monitoring the over-reaction to the markets once a team entered the ‘Red Zone’.

The ‘Red Zone’ is when a team is within 20 yards of the End Zone and usually come away with a least a field goal (3pts). My main focus has been when the team has 1st and goal (10 yards or less to the End Zone), I am finding on regular basis short-prices being offered to lay.

The liquidity is growing each season on the NFL (Sky TV games), but I am not putting that much money in the market to make any difference, I usually get matched very quickly on the price that want.

Last night’s early game between Philadelphia & NY Giants ebbed and flowed, Phili was on a good drive and got into the ‘Red Zone’ and I looked at my notes and had 1.23 as the likely market price if they were to score a touchdown.

On this occasion the Betfair was trading between 1.28 – 1.30 with a first down and ten. This is where my inexperience of the game of not knowing too much about the tactics of individual teams can leave me like a bit of rabbit in the headlights.

My problem is; do I enter with  laybet at 1.28 with a stop loss at 1.23 or do I wait a couple of plays and see if the get a 1st and goal? In truth there is no right or wrong answer and it will come down to your knowledge of the game what you choose to do, but I feel either way you should be able to secure good profits.

In this match, I held my position and Phili got within 1st & goal and the price being offered to lay was 1.22, so I opened my position with a laybet at that price.

Without a play taking place the market bounced slightly to 1.23/1.24, now it should be remembered that Phili still hasn’t scored any points here. Yes; it’s a given they will get a field goal, but at the end of the day they’re a few yards closer to the End Zone.

The Giants defence held well and by the 3rd down the price had bounced out to 1.32/1.33 on Betfair. At this point I was in a position of strength on the next play, I just put a stop loss at 1.22 (my scratch position), basically it wasn’t going to cost me anything to watch this 3rd down.

Once again the Giants held firm and Phili has to settle with for the 3 points and market moved to 1.36/1.37. Last season I would have taken this profit through my inexperience of the markets, but this season, I tend to be slightly more aggressive and see if I can leverage more out of the situation if the market continues to move in my direction.

On the Giants next drive, the market stalled around 1.50 and that was my prompt to exit the market. With how the game played out this was too early and pretty soon after both teams were trading at 2.0 and I could have obtained very good profits.

That said; the experience I am getting in the market is more than compensating for the lack knowledge on the teams and the tactics of the game.

To me; I feel it’s better to gain the knowledge of the markets first, then workout why the game situation is causing the markets to behave in this way.

The nature and longevity of the game lends itself perfectly to trading and as I improve my skills, multiple low-risk opportunities will appear.

Quite a few of X-Club trade Gridiron amongst the other sports we cover in my community and if you would like to get involved trading alongside me then head over to Pro X Trading

Filed Under: Betfair Trading Tagged With: , , , , ,

Trading Pointers – Premier League Winners Market.

September 1, 2011 By Leave a Comment

We have the International break in the Premier League and it gives us the perfect opportunity to reflect on the whirlwind start in the Premier League and look for possible trading opportunities in the markets.

One early trend coming through is the number of 0-0 draws already this season, 6 from 29 matches (20.69%), the 10 year average for the Premier League is 8.3% and if you would like to explore this subject in more detail then I recommend you read Andrew’s comments at Betting Expert Blog. Out of those 0-0′s three have occurred in the 12 live TV matches (25%), I have to spare a thought for the lay the draw boys, as you have to add WBA goal against Chelsea to the mix (the draw price went in after the baggies goal). All this equates to a misarable 67% success rate on laying the draw at kick-off.

Goals have been at a premium so far this season and if you eliminate Man Utd, Man City & Chelsea from the mix (8 out 9 matches) have seen over 2.5 goals. In the remaining 20 matches, 1just 5 of those have resulted in underover 2.5 goals (25%).

Future Pointers

Dutching Man Utd & Man City to win the league only pays 1.38 on Betfair, you can ramp that price up a bit by dutching the straight forcast between them both, that will pay around 2.15 on Betfair. Given the start by both teams, I think the team that finishes above Utd will win the league and City are looking like the biggest dangers.

As a trader the question you need to be asking yourself is how the markets will react in the short and medium term, you see whenever you choose to enter the market there is always a 50-50 chance that you get your entry position right.

Looking at the fixtures on both teams in September and upto the first Manchester derby on the 23rd of October I feel City have the easiest run of matches.

  • Utd play: Bolton (a), Benfica (a),  Chelsea (h), Stoke (a), Basel (h), Norwich (h), Liverpool (a), Galati (a) & Man City (h)
  • City play: Wigan (h), Napoli (h), Fulham (a), Everton (h), Bayern Munich (a), Blackburn (a), Villa (h), Villarreal (h) & Man Utd (a)

As you can see Manchester Utd are trading around 11/8 (2.38) on Betfair and the question you ask yourself as a trader is what is the shortest price they will be if they win the next 5 league games and say Man City drop say 5 or 6 points?

I feel that would give you the very worst case senerio, from this point you can start to workout your maximum risk. In this example I feel the shortest price Utd could go if they go 5 or 6 points clear at the top of the table is around 1.60.

Lets say we put a £500 laybet into the market at 2.40, that would give us an opening liability of £700. It should be remembered we’re not risking this amount of money as we have identified our stop-loss (1.60), so our maximum risk is £250 based on the suggested opening position.

Pro Trader Tip: You should embrace risk as trader because its something that can be calculated in advance, but you should remember no reward is worth risking everything.

All about timing

One of the main differences between pro traders and novices is the timing into the market, if you take this proposed trade I know that Man City in their next match play before Utd do at Bolton, which is tea-time game on Saturday.

On paper; both teams should win and based on that assumption it could be better to wait until after these matches are played? I am not so sure, let me explain.

My thought process for over the next few matches Utd could trade higher than their current quote on Betfair, so your entry point needs to be based on how well Man City will do in their next match at home to Wigan.

If you think they will win the match then you open a position on utd (laybet), if you don’t then you hold your position and do not enter the market.

If Man City beat Fulham, then Utd have to beat Bolton for the prices to remain pretty much the same as we see now, there may be some minor adjustments depending on other results.

It should be remembered that Utd only won 5 games away and will drop points in at least 33% of the matches, that figure was closer to 40% last season.

Some other factors to consider if City beat Wigan, Utd’s price could drift during the game if Bolton take the lead, so you could put yourself in a strong trading position

Pro Trader Tip: If the above happens generally I put an exit point half way between the price drifts to and your entry point. More often than not the big teams score next or go onto win.

Example: Say Bolton lead 1-0 and utd’s price drifts to 3.0 in the winners market, I would put an exit position in the market at 2.70 to at least take something out of the market. If Utd lose this exit point is unlikely to be hit and you’re in a position of strength going into the next game.

If utd go onto to win, the price in the winners market may return close to the pre-game price and once again you’re faced with a similar decision. Except you have now bank a bit of profit (£55.55) based on the above prices and this potentially reduces your maximum risk to less than £200 and Utd would have to hit below 2.16 before you even have a red book.

Position Of Strength: Once you have gained profit you’re in a position of strength to leverage further profits, its perfectly acceptable to set an exit point at the scratch position.

In Summary

I will revisit this potential trade closer to the next game and will document if I open a position within this market. Over the next few days I will be back with a look at the Premier League relegation market.

 

Filed Under: Soccer Trading Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,

Hoops Issue 7

May 31, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The NBA thread returns to the ProTraderTip blog after a short break, just in time to catch up with the 2011 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat (58-24) and the Dallas Mavericks (57-25), and I’m ready to give you some useful insight to back up your picks.

It took 15 games for both teams to get to their second ever NBA Finals and the second against each other too. Of course the public debate is going on whether the Mavs can take a revange for the 2006 loss or the Big 3 can lead Miami to the title in their first season, but in betting and hendicapping terms things like a Finals against each other 5 years ago or even the regular season matchups have nothing to do with the actual chances. A build-up phase Miami lost twice to Dallas, and we have seen a massive change in the gameplay for both sides.

Miami Heat

Miami have covered all the issues they were criticised for in the regulars season: 4th quarter chokes and team defense. With Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller returning they have some crucial and experienced spare force in the roster. Chris Bosh completely outplayed Chicago’s big men, Noah and Boozer, going over 30 points twice in the series. Wade seems to be a bit struggling with a minor shoulder injury, but he is declared fit to play in the Finals. And last but not least Lebron James has been simply faultless so far, coming up big in the crucial minutes, rebounding, blocking and destroying defenses. They played their peak basketball of the season when it was the most needed, during the whole Playoffs. They geared up from series to series, producing some of the finest defensive displays against Boston and Chicago.

The Heat averaged 102.1 points and allowed 94.6 in the regular season which is now down to 92.5 (!) and 88.3. Incredible that only once they allowed over 100 points during the 15 games playoff run. They are 10-5-0 ATS and 9-6 O/U. Their totals were set in the 179.5 – 190 range with both times going under the 190 line and also under the second highest 188.5 line. Miami failed to cover the two 10+ spreads against the 76ers, but cashed in on all spreads as a favourite since then.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas put extra emphasize on their defense issues this season, and they were succesfully transformed from a run-and-gun team into a more complex unit with deep bench and various shooting options. They had to change their original lineup after the injury to Caron Butler, but the chemistry works well with Chandler-Nowitzki-Marion-Stevenson-Kidd starting five and the best bench of the league can always be the deciding factor. The Mavs went from a solid to superb in the playoffs, playing unexpectedly effective basketball in away games. Dirk Nowitzki averages 28.7 points per game with a 51.7% FG and a deadly FT rate. He converted 59/61 FT against the Thunder including an NBA record 24/24 performance.

The Mavs averaged 100.2 points and allowed 96.0 in the regular season, that figures are 99.7 and 92.5 in the playoffs. They are 12-2-1 ATS and 9-6 O/U. Their 3 losses came by 5, 2, and 6 points and they always covered as an underdog. The total spreads had a wider range than on the Heat games, streched from 182.5 to 199.5.

The teams seem to be complete and ready as ever, so I’ve chosen 3 questions that could prove to be decisive for the outcome of the series.

 

Which backcourt will have the edge?

The Mavs are deadly 3-point shooters with Nowitzki, Terry, Stojakovic and Kidd in their roster, averaging an outstanding 8.9 3-pointers per game in the playoffs. Their perimeter ball movement is the best in the league when they need to find the free man in double team situations (mostly of course on Nowitzki). The big German made crucial 3-pointers and free throws in all series, and none of the opponents found a way to defend him. In one-on-ones he just simply overthrows anybody, while in double teams he would find the free lurking man or put the defenders into foul troubles and make easy free throws.

Lebron James and Co. will look for transition opportunities and fast breaks. In the clutch situations it will always be James or Wade with the ball and compared to the Mavs, much less is expected from the perimeter men like Bibby, Miller or Chalmers.

Which team will execute the better team defense?

When it comes to team defense, the team on our mind at the moment is the Heat. The way they closed down the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls was superb. James put in some great defending on Derrick Rose (which was a mismatch by their size differences), but against the Mavs it won’t be him who should handle the main defense issues. They will certainly have bigger problems as the Mavs are far from being a one man team like the Bulls have turned out to be. Guarding Nowitzki can be impossible, so tightening their frontcourt defense and rebounding will be crucial. The Mavs have a solid frontcourt in Chandler and Marion on to win the rebound battle and prevent from fast breaks. As I said above, Nowitzki can put anybody into foul troubles, so that’s why I predict a rotation on him from Haslem, Anthony and Bosh. It will be interesting to see how they will cope defending a 7 Ft forward in the perimeter area. Hard times coming for Chris Bosh. On the other hand Dallas will also have mismatches when their small-ball backcourt will meet Dwayne Wade, or in the later stages of the game Lebron James, so we will see the Mavs switching to zonal marking more often then usual.

What the benches can add to the game?

The importance of the benches are obvious here: The Heat bench averaged 16.0 points against the Bulls while the Mavs bench went for 37.2 against the Thunder mostly down to Jason Terry of course. The Heat don’t have any X-factor player on their bench, but if the Big 3 play in form, they only need the bench to back them up. The Mavs will make efforts to put the Big 3 into foul troubles in order to exploit their bench edge. Watch out for Wade’s shoulder, if things get worse it can be dcisive as well. The Mavs can replace anybody but Nowitzki in their lineup, while Miami don’t have capable subsitutes for the big 3 and Bibby.

What to expect betting wise?

Experts expect the totals to be in the range of 185 and 190 which applied to their series against the Lakers and the 76ers. The Heat games in that series went over 190 just once while the Mavs games went over 190 3 times out of 4. The home teams will be favoured by 3-5 points in the series, but the bigger the spread goes over 3 the more I will like the underdog. As I really expect the teams to play close encounters, I will look to take the away team around 2.80-3.00ish odds before the game to trade out below 2.00 in-play. The two teams have exceptional away records, both are capable of stealing a win. The value in the Winner market is on the Mavs of course.

Sit back and enjoy the 2011 NBA Finals, I will be back with another issue soon!

Filed Under: Trading the NBA

Hoops Issue 6

May 7, 2011 By Leave a Comment

We are 20 days into the 2011 NBA Playoffs season, and all I can say is we are having great entertainment and excitement, tight games and some raw surprises. Big guns struggling, underdogs are covering – so Welcome to Issue 6. of Hoops, let’s dig a bit deeper into the fresh Playoffs trends and numbers!

Dogs on the run!

It was soon understood, that this years Playoff predictions (including mine) should be dropped to the bin and cappers have to start reconsidering their selections from the „Playoffs point of view” instead of the regular seasons. What do I mean here? Well, no doubt we had the most balanced first round matchups since years, even including the 4-0 sweep of New York by the Celtics (which certainly wouldn’t have been a sweep with Billups and Stoudomire both fit), the gap between the teams was tight as it can be.

The dogs are doing great, enough to take a look at the following numbers. Favourites are 18-30-3 ATS with home favourites doing especially badly, 14-23-2 ATS. If we look at the handicap ranges, the favs are recording only 3-20-1 against spreads of 5,5 points or above. We had 28 unders and 23 overs so far. Worth a note that lines of 189 or more are 8-14 O/U, so value is often found in too low or too high lines.

If we take the team stats, 3 teams are jumping out from the rest with their impressive and profitable ATS, the giant killers Atlanta and Memphis and the top form Dallas Mavericks. The former teams were much underrated by the spread at the beginning of their respective series and continued to cover the spread even when the lines shortened. Despite losing twice in Portland, the Mavs have never got beaten by more than 5 points. They are averaging 7 points less and allowing 8 points less than in the regular season, so their over bias didn’t pay off so far in the Playoffs. The stats would show Atlanta allowing 89.1 points on average this Playoffs, but in truth they only allowed more than 88 just 3 times, and only lost once, so try to look behind the numbers when reading trends comparisions. Last years finalists, the Lakers and Celtics find themselves 0-2 in the second round, and that is simply down to their unusally bad defending. The Celtics allowed only 90,7 against the Knicks, while Miami scored against 102 and 99 lately. The Lakers had 89,6 from the Hornets and 94,5 from the Mavericks so far. Speaking of overs, only Memphis have been consistent enough to make it 6-2 O/U, averaging 100.1 points and allowing 97.2.

In-play flops

The underperforming favourites would give us some good opportunities to exploit in-play. According to my notes, the Betfair markets tend to underreact even 15-20 point trails for favourites in the first half, and overreact tight leads in the second half. On Sunday 24/04, Miami were 82-76 up with 1:35 on the clock, when their „usual” end game struggle hit in. Their price on Betfair was as low as 1.04, when Philly started their 10-0 run including two 3-pointers. The market was late to respond, and Miami only started drifting after Wade missed a shot at 0:27.9, still 81-82. Their price would steam to 3.60 in 10 seconds, then the second 3 pointer at 0:8.9 sealed the game. They lost an already won game in the clutch time like they did a couple of times already this season. Coach Spoelstra somehow always chooses the worst option of who to give the game deciding shot.

No wonder that Dallas were also trading around 1.05 on Saturday 23/04 when they turned with a 67-49 lead into the 4th quarter, but the Blazers had the last word when they put together their best 4th quarter of the season, winning it 35-15 and claiming a 84-82 victory. Poor San Antonio were leading by 4 points (98-94) on Sunday 1:06 before the end but their 1.02 backers were let down when they gave the game into the Grizzlies hands and lost 101-98. What would you call a flop if not this?

So laying 1.05 favourites not later than the 3rd quater has produced some healthy returns this Playoffs whether you try to trade it out for a particular ticks profit or just let it go. I will be monitoring this beside some other in-play trends to give you some food for thought.

Title odds

The Chicago Bulls held their price during the series with Indiana, so we came to sort of a resistance point in their steam. Now they are 5.5, but traded as low as 4,8 after advancing from the first round. So if you backed them at 9.00ish odds you should wait with greening until the conference finals as they should be beating the Hawks (famous last words), otherwise you shouldn’t be in the market at all.

Boston came in to 7.40 after advancing from the first round as I expected in Issue 5, but now they are trailing 0-2 and their odds reacted strongly – out to 19.0 now. Steamers of the week are Dallas, who shortened from 25.0 to 6.8 after beating the Lakers twice in LA, well done if you had them at any double digit odds before. Miami are attracting public money steadily, so should they beat Boston to the Conference finals, I will take a lay on them below 2.00.

I think the winner of the OKC – Memphis matchup will be trading at the highest odds for the title from the 4 remaining teams, so OKC’s 9.00 only represents value if you expect them to rush to the Finals.

Good luck with betting and trading, enjoy the second round games!

Gaby

Filed Under: Trading the NBA

Tennis Betting Tips – Clay Court v Other Surfaces

April 20, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Now that the tennis circuit has entered the  clay court season, I’d like to note some differences for you between trading tennis on the clay courts as opposed to the other surfaces.  Tennis betting is huge, but I feel the advatanges lie trading on the betting exchanges as you can take your knowlegde of the sport and apply that to the markets to produce a steady drip of profits.

Service Speed

The tennis balls used are pretty much the same year round; there are subtle differences from event to event but not huge; however what does change is how the balls react on the different surfaces. The clay courts have a drag effect on the balls and therefore the service speeds for both mens and womens are at their slowest on clay. What does this mean for us as traders? Well essentially it means that players who’s games are built solely around the serve are now not at as big an advantage as on other surfaces (like grass and hardcourt). It therefore means also that good returners of the serve now have more of an advantage to capabilise on their strengths.

Specialists

The clay tournaments are primarily late spring/summer tournaments. This is because the clay gets very sticky when its wet and is essentially unplayable for a longer period than say hardcourts. You find therefore the countries that have generally hot Summers produce the best clay courters (as this is the surface that the players were raised playing on). So, European countries like Spain, France, Switzerland and Italy tend to have the higher ranked specialist clay courters, along with the main South American countries. So a lower ranked Argentinean player versus say a higher ranked US player may infact be a more equal battle than it looks on first inspection.

Stamina

Due to the ball speeds being slower on the clay than on the hardcourts and grass the rallies tend to last a lot longer. This means longer matches & more attrition on the body especially if the match is being played in high temperatures. So what are we concerned about here? Well, if a player enters a clay court tournament carrying any type of injury (especially into the French Open where’s the best of 5 sets for men), it is likely that they will be found out fitness wise. Longer matches of course also mean you must be strong mentally to face the demands of longer rallies and longer matches, again as traders; we need to be sure that we know what players are best suited to this type of scenario.

Volatility

It’s a little bit of a generalisation but you will in the main find that the greatest volumes of money and greatest volatility in prices occur on clay. Why? Well for one, the betting exchanges are still essentially a European phenomenon so the times of the clay season suit traders better; also, with longer rallies, longer matches, the boom-boom serve dominant tennis of the hardcourts is replaced with more chess like tennis and therefore players can and do get more chances to play shots and win points by craft rather than sheer power. This tends to mean more competitive games than on hardcourts/grass.

The King of Clay

I cannot sign off on any discussion of clay court tennis without making reference to the greatest clay court player of all time. Rafa Nadal is the rightfull called the King of Clay. His abilities on this surface ensure that any clay event he enters is basically a match of him versus the field; his records in clay tournaments are astounding and if his fitness holds, will likely to never be surpassed. Because of this, as traders we need to be wary of him; laying him on clay is something that should only be done where you think there’s an injury concern or where for some reason you think he may start a match slowly. The market is incredibly slow to move against him on clay even if he is appearing to struggle. Now, reading this, you may think that he’s a cert to win if you back him; and with this in mind, I’ll note two things; (1) in the early rounds of tournaments, he can be as low as 1.01 to win and (2) he has a slight injury concern over him which may catch up with him as the season progresses; so, in summary, tread carefully if backing or laying.

Best of luck with your trades.

The Accountant

Filed Under: Tennis Trading Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Cricket Betting will be big this summer, but will it leave you in a Spin?

April 18, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Online cricket betting is becoming big business, but you don’t have to take a position and stick with it all summer, my name is Shocker and I am an active member of the X-Club and I will be keeping a close eye on the English domestic season from a betting and trading prospective.

After a the superb achievement of a winter Ashes victory down under, how will England fare against  the twin Asian threat of Spin this Summer in the Shape of Sri Lanka & India ?

Early prices have England chalked at 2/5 (1.40) to win the series against Sri Lanka and they’re 11/10 (2.10) favourites and I feel these odds are touch skinny, given that both series will be a tougher examination than they faced down under.

My take on the matter from a betting perspective is that  I think England will suffer and it’s certainly worth considering opening a position by laying them in both series as I expect them to trade higher at some point.

There are number of reasons for this.

Since the Peter Moores / Kevin Pietersen debacle before the West Indies Tour in January 2009, England have been under the guidance of two very steady hands on the tiller in the shape of Andy Flower and Andrew Strauss. England have benefitted massively from continuity of selection, approach and some expert background analysis but all that may be about to change.

Since Gary Kirsten decided that his  wonderful achievement in winning The World Cup would be his swansong,  India have been left without a coach and now have Andy Flower as their number one target as their new Head honcho. England have progressed so much since that disastrous Caribbean Tour due in large to stability.

To lose Flower now or to have to make an announcement that he may be moving on at a later date would be at odds with the thought process of the  current  group of centralised Contracted players. The current group have benefitted enormously from Flower’s calm approach and tactical acumen notably telling Stuart Broad to bowl wide of the crease to Jacques Kallis in South Africa, thus  changing his angles of attack and also giving Matt Prior an ultimatum: Get Fit or Get out – how his keeping has progressed has been a direct result of Flower’s badgering.

Throw in the fact that Hugh Morris, who works brilliantly with Flower and is Director of Operations at The ECB, is being courted for a job at The RFU and suddenly the whole infrastructure may also change behind the scenes in England Cricket. English Sportsman as a whole don’t react to change very well. Add in the dual threat on the pitch of Mendis, Harinath and Harbajhan Singh  in the Spin Department and England, who are traditionally poor players of spin, may well be up against it this Summer.

The 3 Test Matches against Sri Lanka are at Cardiff, Lords & The Rose Bowl and the latter two pitches will take  turn – England haven’t play spin well  since Graham Thorpe retired i.e.  producing a middle order batsman who can manipulate spinners very well plus with Sangakara and Dilshan Tillekeratte, Sri Lanka have some class players in their batting ranks too.

The question you need answering will the produce a result at Cardiff? Any significant amount of time lost to the weather will make it difficult and the track is fairly easy to bat on and that could easily head for a draw.

Also consider that this will be last time English Cricket fans will have the pleasure of watching the genius that is Sachin Tendulkar, coupled with trying to dislodge Sehwag, Dravid, Gambir, Laxman, Dhoni and co, England will struggle to take 20 wickets to win a Test Match vs India.

India are very superior to Australia in all departments and I just think to lay England as soon as the market appears on Betfair will be wise because come Thursday 21st July at Lords England are going to be under the cosh bigtime.

My Verdict - England to suffer an Ashes hangover against two sub-continent class acts, open you first position by laying England around 2/5 (1.40) when the market forms

I will be back during the summer months to see how the series are being played out.

Gareth (Shocker!)

Filed Under: Cricket Trading Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

How a S.W.O.T. Analysis can improve your trading.

April 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Hi my name is Paul ‘Minor’ Morris in the X-Club and I have been a profitable football trader for the past 2 seasons and I want to share a few tips that turned me from one of those losing punters, to a confident trader who makes a good second income.

My mentor Matt Finnigan has asked me to make this story about me and not about him or the X-Club, but its hard not to, when during an early conversation he totally changed my thought process overnight.

He told me that I needed how to learn how to lose before I could win and keep the process simple!

I was a typical mug punter

It was that day I realised I was a typical mug punter and I’m sure the bookies enjoyed taking my hard-earned cash, whether it was the one from each section on the Saturday football coupon, or that punt on the unbeatable good thing with the champion jockey aboard.

Of course when the bets lost it was never my fault, it would be the cart-horse of a centre-forward that missed an open-goal, or I would rant on about race-fixing conspiracy theories when the horse with no form romped home, I found losing bets hard to accept and I didn’t really know whether the bets I placed were value and whether the percentages were in my favour.

Even though I knew that I didn’t win long-term from betting, I was clueless how much I lost and my journey began by using a S.W.O.T. analysis of my betting (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats). This was something that I had used in my every day work place and it really hit home some truths about the state of my game as a punter.

I strongly recommend any losing punter do a S.W.O.T. analysis of your profile, here is an example of how that could look for you as individual.

Strengths

  • Good knowledge of football, especially premier league
  • Sound grasp of different football markets available pre-match & in-play
  • Logical thinker
  • Good knowledge of Microsoft excel, useful for analysis
  • Fairly good with numbers
  • A willingness to learn

Weaknesses

  • Bet on emotion rather than research
  • Not realising the importance of a separate betting bank
  • Due to above not respecting or protecting any money used for betting
  • Not being able to work out my risk before entering money into a market
  • Would just switch on the TV and start to bet or trade because an event was live
  • Lack of preparation, not carrying out any research before a game
  • Poor knowledge of markets & how they move/react before & during a game
  • No idea how to go about creating tissue prices (true odds)
  • Don’t know how various markets are linked together
  • Not sure how bookmakers odds affect Betfair
  • No knowledge of how key players & formations affect match & goals betting markets
  • Not carrying out a match overview, working out true odds percentages
  • Poor reading of a football game whilst in-play
  • No Use of statistics to back-up  live pictures, so unable to make informed decisions during a game
  • Don’t use RSS feeds or social sites such as Twitter to gather information
  • Just use the main Betfair site, poor knowledge of software available
  • Unable to establish why a market is moving pre-match
  • Not sure of the best way to use outright markets

Opportunities

  • Identified Betfair as major opportunity with the increased odds available.
  • Carry out research on the types of software available for use with Betfair
  • Invest in better technology
  • Read literature on psychology, mindset required for trading
  • Identify web-sites, magazines, books that provide statistics & regularly updated sports information
  • Specialise initially in football, play to my strengths
  • Create a spreadsheet to keep a record of all bets placed
  • Learn about Betfair markets, identify low risk opportunities

Threats

  • Chasing losses & going on tilt
  • No patience or discipline, an inability to wait for the right opportunities
  • No record keeping
  • Not assessing strengths & weaknesses
  • No Investment in the best technology available
  • Not being able to accept losses
  • Not learning from my mistakes & consequently repeating them

I will be soon with the continuation of my trading journey and I hope that I have given you a few pointers that could be useful in the future

Paul

 

Filed Under: Soccer Trading Tagged With: , , , , ,

Hoops – The 2011 NBA Play-Offs

April 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

It’s Hoops time again after a 2 weeks break, welcome guys to the 2011 NBA Playoffs edition.

Spurs last 12 games

Before we start analysing the matchups and giving you my NBA betting lines, I owe you the results of the San Antonio Spurs season ending run, where I recommended to oppose them – first on match odds, then in Issue 4 on the spread.

DateOpponentML OddsSpreadResult
04/13@Phoenix1.67L -3.5L 103-106
04/12@LA Lakers9.5L +7.5L 93-102
04/09Utah1.17L -10W 111-102
04/06Sacramento1.15W -10.5W 124-92
04/05@Atlanta1.43W -6W 97-90
04/03Phoenix1.13W -11W 114-97
04/01@Houston2.16L +2.5L 114-119
03/31Boston1.84L -1.5L 97-107
03/28Portland2.16L -3L 92-100
03/27@Memphis2.02L 2L 104-111
03/25@Portland2.59W 4.5L 96-98
03/23@Denver2.88W 5.5L 112-115

You could have profited from this in many ways:

  • Simply betting on their opponents straight up, that’s 8 winning bets out of 12 – 66.6% rate;
  • Laying Spurs as a favourite would have resulted in 1.02 points after 5% Betfair commission for a 2.39 liability – that’s 42% ROI;
  • Opposing Spurs on the spread would have given us 7 winning bets out of 12 – 10,8% ROI;
  • Sticking to my original suggestion the results: 5/5 ML winners and 4/7 ATS winners.

Good profits each way guys, watch out for these tough or meaningless runs in the regular season.

To be honest, I shot blanks with my Boston to hold 2nd spot prediciton in the last edition, but to compensate this Portland did the business by overtaking struggling New Orleans thus avoiding the reigning champions LA Lakers in the first round. We have no clear favourite in the East, but Chicago seem to be strong as ever and Miami found the effective way to play their superstars together. Orlando is not a title candidate at the experts, while Boston are a dark horse with a hard task ahead without the home court advantage. In the West the homecourt advantage will save San Antonio from an upset, but any further injury to Ginobili or Parker could ruin their title hopes this year. Portland and Denver are definitely not underdogs, while the Lakers can be thankful for playing the weakest link New Orleans in the first round.

Eastern Conference

1. Chicago Bulls  vs. 8. Indiana Pacers

  • Bulls: 62-20 SU, 49-31-2 ATS, 35-47 O/U, 98.6/91.3 PF/PA
  • Pacers: 37-45 SU, 38-42-2 ATS, 37-45 O/U, 99.8/100.9 PF/PA
  • Bulls won season series 3-1
  • Lines for Game 1: Pacers +11.5, Total 188.5

The first game of the Playoffs season sees the Bulls entertain the Pacers on Saturday evening (GMT). The season series had respective spreads -9, -1, -7, -4 for Chicago with the Bulls not being able to cover only the last one in Indianapolis. Though they rarely cover when they are 10+ favourites, but Indiana struggles in scoring against good defending teams and they only scored over 90 points against the Bulls when they played an OT game in March. Pacers shot only 38% against the Bulls this season, which is the second worst to Dallas. Chicago went through the regular season like a steamroller and the momentum is definitely on their side to outperform the Pacers. My concern about overs and taking them on the ATS is that simply they don’t have to score loads of points to win a game, we often saw them ending up with 90-93 when they were able to hold the opposition off range during the first 3 quaters.

My NBA betting line prediction: Bulls -11.5 and Under, series: Bulls 4-0

2. Miami Heat vs. 7. Philadelphia 76ers

  • Heat: 58-24 SU, 40-41-1 ATS, 41-40-1 O/U, 102.1/94.6 PF/PA
  • 76ers: 41-41 SU, 46-35-1 ATS, 40-42 O/U, 99.0/97.5 PF/PA
  • Heat won the season series 3-0
  • Lines for Game 1: 76ers +10.5, Total 190

Miami made the expected 6-1 SU run and took the 2nd spot in the East. Now they are facing the sympathic 76ers, who gave away their 6th position to the New York Knicks in the closing weeks. They lost guard Lou Williams due to injury, who could have been a key to battle with the Miami frontcourt, so spotlights are now on Andre Igoudala to stop Lebron James and Dwayne Wade. They met on 03/25 in Miami, the Heat won 111-99 covering the -8 spread and pushing the game Over 196 points. The regular season games show there is a 9-10 points difference between the sides and I’m happy to oppose Miami when they are favoured over 10 against those hard working sides like Philly.

My NBA betting line prediction: 76ers +10.5 and Under, series: Heat 4-1

3. Boston Celtics vs. 6. New York Knicks

  • Celtics: 57-25 SU, 38-42-2 ATS, 37-44-1 O/U, 96.5/91.1 PF/PA
  • Knicks: 42-40 SU, 46-34-2 ATS, 42-39-1 O/U, 106.5/105.7 PF/PA
  • Celtics won the season series 4-1
  • Lines for Game 1: Knicks +6.5, Total 198

The most sounding encounter is the one between the Celtics and the Knicks – the old and the new Big 3. Boston lost their awesome form after the Kendrick Perkins trade and they couldn’t find their match tempo until the end of the regular season. That cost them their home court advantage should they advance from the first round. Don’t let the 4-0 season series blow your mind, the circumstances in those games are not valid anymore, the situation they start this series is pretty different. Celtics tend to play impressively in the first 2 quaters only to give away 20+ leads even to medioce sides and they have problems under the rim with the two O’neals not being 100% fit. New York is strong on individuals, good in scoring but they have defending issues and problems with their bench. Even if they could hold the Celtics to a 6 or 7 games series, the more the bench players would be needed the more advantage Boston have over them.

My NBA betting line prediction:Celtics -6.5 and Over, series: Celtics 4-2

4. Orlando Magic vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

  • Magic: 52-30 SU, 35-46-1 ATS, 34-46-2 O/U, 99.2/93.7 PF/PA
  • Hawks: 44-38 SU, 37-45 ATS, 34-48 O/U, 95.0/95.8 PF/PA
  • Hawks won season series 3-1
  • Lines for Game 1: Hawks +8.5, Total 179.5

In my opinion the easiest matchup in the East even though they finished 4. and 5. A total „mismatch” as they would say in the US. Hawks played terribly in March and April, lacked scoring, defending, bench, individuals, completely everything. They were one of the easiest opponents to beat, ending the season with a 0-6 streak, while Orlando are a sleeping beast who can walk over them like last year if they get their usuall playoff gear. 9 out of their last 10 meetings went Under – a trend always to notice – but those were 190ish lines and my feeling is that this series will have at least two overs.

My NBA betting line prediction: Magic -8.5 and Over, series Magic 4-1

Western Conference

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

  • Spurs: 61-21 SU, 44-36-2 ATS, 46-36 O/U, 103.7/98.0 PF/PA
  • Grizzlies: 46-36 SU, 52-29-1 ATS, 41-41 O/U, 99.9/97.6 PF/PA
  • Season series tied 2-2
  • Lines for Game 1: Grizzlies +6.5, Total 195

Tricky series this could be as the Grizzlies are a massive team with a good frontcourt and the talented Marc Gasol under the rim. The Spurs switched their profile from a defending team to an effective attacking squad, with their bench playing more and more important role in small-ball situations. Both teams won their home games in the season series, and I’m sure that Memphis will be able to match Spurs on home court again, recording their first ever playoff win since moving to Memphis. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio and the Spurs are 8-2 O/U recently. If Manu Ginobili is to play on Sunday, then my pick is Spurs on the spread, otherwise I will go for the Grizzlies.

My NBA betting line prediction:Spurs -6.5 and Over, series Spurs 4-2

2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7. New Orleans Hornets

  • Lakers: 57-25 SU, 39-42-1 ATS, 33-49 O/U, 101.5/95.4 PF/PA
  • Hornets: 46-36 SU, 39-41-2 ATS, 31-51 O/U, 94.9/94.0 PF/PA
  • Lakers won the season series 4-0
  • Lines for Game 1: Hornets +10, Total 183

The Lakers had their chance to clinch the top spot in the West, but eventually they ran into a 5 games losing streak and they were not the same team we saw afer the All-Star anymore. Doubts are rising over Bynum’s knee, while Blake is out with Chickenpox and it is still unsure whether in of his teammates are infected. If so, it would be the end of LA’s hopes – in a weeks time time we will know. The Hornets will miss David West and to top the problems Chris Paul is playing his worst period in his NBA career, simply he couldn’t be the leader when it was needed. The reason I tipped a sweep for the Lakers is that they simply outperform the Hornets in all aspects of the game, won the season series, have the home advantage, while I rate New Orleans even below 8. placed Memphis’s potential. They led the NBA in unders and their games against the top teams tend to go under, but the line seems to be very low for this game, so this might well be a trap from the bookies. The season series games had the line at 188.5 and 190 and they went 3-1 over. Hornets only had 2 games with lower lines than this, finishing 1-1 O/U. I recommend to take the under when the line is set around 190 in their games.

My NBA betting line prediction: Hornets +10 and Over, series Lakers 4-0

3. Dallas Mavericks vs. 6. Portland Trailblazers

  • Mavs: 57-25 SU, 44-36-2 ATS, 46-35-1 O/U, 100.2/96 PF/PA
  • Blazers: 48-34 SU, 43-36-3 ATS, 38-43-1 O/U, 96.3/94.8 PF/PA
  • Season series tied 2-2
  • Lines for Game 1: Blazers +5, Total 186

I trust the Blazers to keep their brilliant form led by new acquisition Gerald Wallace. Two teams with deep roster meet in this one and I take it as the matchup with the highest upset potential and the hardest to predict. This could really go either way as the Blazers are capable of stealing a victory in Dallas, while the Mavericks are one of the best road teams in the NBA (28-13). The Blazers are consitent in scoring and rarely go under 90 points, The things that favour Dallas are the potential return of Caron Butler and the always playoffs-sharp Dirk Nowitzki. I think these will be close fought encounters and if the spread stays around 5-8 points I will take Blazers during the matchups.

My NBA betting line prediction: Blazers +5 and Over, series Dallas 4-2

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5. Denver Nuggets

  • Thunder: 55-27 SU, 43-38-1 ATS, 45-37 O/U, 104.8/101.0 PF/PA
  • Nuggets: 50-32 SU, 44-34-4 ATS, 37-42 O/U, 107.5/102.7 PF/PA
  • Thunder won season series 3-1
  • Lines for Game 1: Nuggets +5.5, Total 200.5

OKC is a joy to watch scoring 100+ points from game to game and their chemistry has just improved since the Perkins trade, they really got their missing piece of the jigsaw. With scoring charts leader Kevin Durant and versatile guard Russell Westbrook in their lineup they have the ability to outscore anyone – who gives them enough posessions. So who to fear then? For example the Denver Nuggets who scored 100+ points the most games in the league, and they have the best chance to win the game when the opponent also scores over 100. Since the Carmelo trade they went 18-7 clinching 5. place and avoiding title contenders. Their backheel is the lack of a leader-type superstar and their 2 losses lately against OKC are things to worry about. Oklahoma slowed their game by being physical, which resulted in 8 technical fouls and Denver scoring only 89 and 94 points. Experts agree that the home court could decide a lot in this tie and I also expect the teams to win their 2-2 first home games.

My NBA betting line prediction:OKC -5.5 and Over, series OKC 4-2

Title odds

Since first spotted, Chicago shortened from 9.0 to 5.6 (7.6 in time of the last Issue) and they have an excellent chance of making it to the Eastern Finals, so the odds still represent value. Now, Lakers and Heat are a bit short for me, Boston is unpredictable but if you fancy them to do well over the Knicks, their price would shorten to 7.00-8.00 I think. Spurs have reached what I expected and taking the first seeded team in the West for 9.2 is always a nice value.

See you guys next week when I will write about some Playoff trends and in-play trading opportunities. Take it easy!

Gaby

Filed Under: Trading the NBA
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