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Pakistan v England Test Series

January 16, 2012 By Leave a Comment

England look to maintain their number one status in the test arena when they take on Pakistan in Dubai.

Injuries to their bowling attack has made the waters a little muddy.  Unlike the rest of test match cricket played around the globe there is a strong draw bias in the UAE and that has to be the first place you look when considering getting involved with any series trading.

Currently the draw is on offer at 3.60 on Betfair for a drawn series and that could be a touch of value from a punting point of view.

Many leading pundits are predicting a tough start for England, but we know they have enough in their locker to grind out a result if needed.

Trading is all about timing!

When it comes to trading the markets you’re not looking to predict the outcome, but you’re on the lookout to get the best risk v reward opportunity in the market. From a trading point of view backing at 3.60 with a view of trading out lower doesn’t offer that opportunity.

Successful trading is all about timing and we think at some point that price of the draw in the series will trade close to 5.0 if not above.  You could make a case for laying the draw and then backing at the higher price, but we feel the draw could trade lower than 3.0 at some point as well. The problem we have here is knowing which one will hit first and for that reason it makes sense to sit and wait for the opportunity to present itself.

Suggested Trading Positions

  • Position One – Back the Drawn Series at 5.0 or above with a stop loss at 8.0, look to trade out at current 3.60 price.
  • Position Two – Lay the Drawn Series at 2.80 or below witha stop loss at 2.30, look to trade out at current 3.60 price.

We will be looking to either position at some point during the first two days of the opening test, at some point a team will get on top and that should give us the opportunity to open a position in the market.

Gareth Notton’s Bets

Before Christmas regular X-Trader Gareth Notton suggested the following bets on the X-Traders Guide podcast.

  1. England Top Series Batsman – Andrew Strauss 6.0 with Bet Victor & Ian Bell 6.50 generally available.
  2. Pakistan Top Series Batsman – Younis Khan 4.50 generally available.
  3. England Top Wicket Taker – Graeme Swann 3.0 generally available.
  4. Pakistan Top Wicket Taker – Sajeed Ajmaa 3.25 generally available.

Gareth also thinks that Pakistan are excellent value at 4.10 for the first test and Pro Trader Tip thinks  they could certainly trade lower during the first days play.

Trade with the X-Traders

The X-Traders at Pro X Trading will be trading this series in the main trading room, if you would like to do the same then join the ‘Exchange Club’

Filed Under: Cricket Trading Tagged With: , , , ,

Cricket Betting will be big this summer, but will it leave you in a Spin?

April 18, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Online cricket betting is becoming big business, but you don’t have to take a position and stick with it all summer, my name is Shocker and I am an active member of the X-Club and I will be keeping a close eye on the English domestic season from a betting and trading prospective.

After a the superb achievement of a winter Ashes victory down under, how will England fare against  the twin Asian threat of Spin this Summer in the Shape of Sri Lanka & India ?

Early prices have England chalked at 2/5 (1.40) to win the series against Sri Lanka and they’re 11/10 (2.10) favourites and I feel these odds are touch skinny, given that both series will be a tougher examination than they faced down under.

My take on the matter from a betting perspective is that  I think England will suffer and it’s certainly worth considering opening a position by laying them in both series as I expect them to trade higher at some point.

There are number of reasons for this.

Since the Peter Moores / Kevin Pietersen debacle before the West Indies Tour in January 2009, England have been under the guidance of two very steady hands on the tiller in the shape of Andy Flower and Andrew Strauss. England have benefitted massively from continuity of selection, approach and some expert background analysis but all that may be about to change.

Since Gary Kirsten decided that his  wonderful achievement in winning The World Cup would be his swansong,  India have been left without a coach and now have Andy Flower as their number one target as their new Head honcho. England have progressed so much since that disastrous Caribbean Tour due in large to stability.

To lose Flower now or to have to make an announcement that he may be moving on at a later date would be at odds with the thought process of the  current  group of centralised Contracted players. The current group have benefitted enormously from Flower’s calm approach and tactical acumen notably telling Stuart Broad to bowl wide of the crease to Jacques Kallis in South Africa, thus  changing his angles of attack and also giving Matt Prior an ultimatum: Get Fit or Get out – how his keeping has progressed has been a direct result of Flower’s badgering.

Throw in the fact that Hugh Morris, who works brilliantly with Flower and is Director of Operations at The ECB, is being courted for a job at The RFU and suddenly the whole infrastructure may also change behind the scenes in England Cricket. English Sportsman as a whole don’t react to change very well. Add in the dual threat on the pitch of Mendis, Harinath and Harbajhan Singh  in the Spin Department and England, who are traditionally poor players of spin, may well be up against it this Summer.

The 3 Test Matches against Sri Lanka are at Cardiff, Lords & The Rose Bowl and the latter two pitches will take  turn – England haven’t play spin well  since Graham Thorpe retired i.e.  producing a middle order batsman who can manipulate spinners very well plus with Sangakara and Dilshan Tillekeratte, Sri Lanka have some class players in their batting ranks too.

The question you need answering will the produce a result at Cardiff? Any significant amount of time lost to the weather will make it difficult and the track is fairly easy to bat on and that could easily head for a draw.

Also consider that this will be last time English Cricket fans will have the pleasure of watching the genius that is Sachin Tendulkar, coupled with trying to dislodge Sehwag, Dravid, Gambir, Laxman, Dhoni and co, England will struggle to take 20 wickets to win a Test Match vs India.

India are very superior to Australia in all departments and I just think to lay England as soon as the market appears on Betfair will be wise because come Thursday 21st July at Lords England are going to be under the cosh bigtime.

My Verdict - England to suffer an Ashes hangover against two sub-continent class acts, open you first position by laying England around 2/5 (1.40) when the market forms

I will be back during the summer months to see how the series are being played out.

Gareth (Shocker!)

Filed Under: Cricket Trading Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

5 tips for successfully trading the ICC World Cup.

February 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Over the next 6 weeks many novice Betfair traders will focus their attentions on the ICC World Cup, many will enter the markets with little or no knowledge on how they react to the action on the field. We want to give you 5 tips on how you can enjoy a successful cricket world cup from a trading point of view.

1. Assign a dedicated trading bank for the tournament

Much is written about money and risk management, but many traders will fall into the trap of trading this tournament because of the increased liquidity and interest in general. They will do so with no structured plan, nor will they assign a dedicated trading bank to work.  By having a trading bank will provide you a starting point to workout the amount you want to enter the market, but more importantly your overall risk per trade.

Example: If working with a £1000 trading bank, you may wish want to enter the market with a 5% liability (£50), but you want only want to risk just 2% of your bank (£20).

You think the favourite will struggle at decide to laybet them at 1.50, putting £100 into the market (£100 x 1.50 = £50 liability). To risk just 2% (£20) of you trading bank you would have to set your maximum stop loss position to 1.25 (25 ticks) and you would place £120 bet at the price, this would yeild £30, giving you a £20 loss on all outcome.

Traders Tip: You should always know your maximum stop loss (exit price) before opening any position in the market.

2. Make yourself available for the toss

You will get opportunities to leverage money out of the market before the match starts following the toss and you know which team is batting or bowling first. Certain venues will suit teams batting last and if the favourite is put into bat first they could drift in the market. The result of the toss can create an unbalance of backers or layers in the market giving you the opportunity to trade on the momentum of the market.

You will find on occassions that the market will move 20+ ticks after the toss because it favours one team over the other, having prior knowledge of the venue and making yourself available for the toss will provide you a chance to profit from the re-balancing of the market.

3. Look for resistance points during the 1st innings.

Before we get shot down in flames, we know each team bat once, but we’re referring to the first set of 50 overs. Market over-reaction is common place if the team bowling first grab early wickets or vice versa on the team batting first come firing out of the blocks.

Spotting market resistance on the batting team: This is easier than the trying to spot on the team bowling and the most simplest way to spot a resistance point is using the Betfair graphs. In the case of the team batting first resistance points normally happen when that team look to be in a position of strength as the market will reach a point where the price will not go any lower, even if the team batting continue to dominate.

The earlier in the innings the better and you will likely find the best resistance prices points 1.30 below (based on them being at least 1.50 or above at the start)

Spotting resistance on the bowling team: This is quite difficult in comparison to finding angles on the team batting, that said your best opportunities will once again lie at the smaller prices, but you may identify opportunities over 1.40. What we look for is a potential partnership to be built and the best time is following a couple of quick wickets.

Unlike test match cricket, most teams will have a strong batting line-up that and can still have plenty of batting strength even when they have 5 or 6 wickets. You should look for early signs of a partnership developing and pick your bowling attack especially if the main strike bowlers are NOT in the attack.

Our advice would be to stick to looking for resistance points on the batting team until you get the experience with trading the markets, but you should remember the other team still has to bat and you will find plenty of losing teams that trade below 1.30 during the tournament.

4. Take the contrarian approach (what the worst that can happen!)

You should remember that favourites doing well and winning has already been factored in the price prior to the match taking place, but winning is sometimes easier said than done. That said; in the group stages they’re will so many one sided matches you will still need to pick and choose your games.

Most of the strong nations will bat first if they win the toss to give their batsmen time in the middle as if the lesser nations bat first then you have the chance of a dramatically reduced game as the chance of the being bowled out cheaply is the same whether they bat first or second.

With this in mind, anything other than covincing and dominent win will see the price at some point be higher than the starting price. This is where your research and structured trading bank will come to the fore, as we have already mentioned you can calculate your risk.

Whats the worst that can happen if you lay a team trading at 1.08 before a ball is bowled?

£8 in every £100 that you put into the market is the simple answer! Our advice on taking the contrarian view is enter the market at slightly less than half the starting price odds.  If you put £500 into the market at 1.03 you’re only risking a maximum of £15 if you did nothing after entering the market.

Remember point 3 about resistance points, you could find yourself being able to scalp the market on several occassions at a 1 tick offset (laying at 1.03 & backing at 1.04). Because of the volumes of money in the market you may be able to scalp several times to leave you with a no-risk position on a dramatic drift in price.

5. Make notes & keep records

It takes a few hours to play out the matches, but it only takes seconds to make notes of Betfair markets during key moments that happen in the match, these notes can be used as the tournament progresses.

Here are a few pointers to help you get started

  • The movement in price if there is a wicket in the first over and what was the score when the batting team returned to its starting price.
  • How far the price drops on the batting team if they score over 35 in the first 5 overs without losing a wicket.
  • Note of the prices and score at the end of the first 15 overs
  • Monitor is the market bounces in price following a wicket on a key player
  • Note prices at the begining and end of the power plays.

The pointers are endless and all can be used in future matches, even when you not open with a trade you can still be improving your technique and the more you learn about the markets, the more effective you will become in trading them.

Bonus Tip

Hopefully we have provided you with some pointers ahead of the world cup, if you would like to take your cricket trading to new levels through the proven strategies & tactics used by the X-Club. There will be a dedicated trading room for whole tournament which will run alongside the football trading room, so if you want to share ideas and thoughts on cricket, then we’re happy for you to get involved

Filed Under: Cricket Trading Tagged With: , , , , , ,