The NBA thread returns to the ProTraderTip blog after a short break, just in time to catch up with the 2011 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat (58-24) and the Dallas Mavericks (57-25), and I’m ready to give you some useful insight to back up your picks.

It took 15 games for both teams to get to their second ever NBA Finals and the second against each other too. Of course the public debate is going on whether the Mavs can take a revange for the 2006 loss or the Big 3 can lead Miami to the title in their first season, but in betting and hendicapping terms things like a Finals against each other 5 years ago or even the regular season matchups have nothing to do with the actual chances. A build-up phase Miami lost twice to Dallas, and we have seen a massive change in the gameplay for both sides.

Miami Heat

Miami have covered all the issues they were criticised for in the regulars season: 4th quarter chokes and team defense. With Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller returning they have some crucial and experienced spare force in the roster. Chris Bosh completely outplayed Chicago’s big men, Noah and Boozer, going over 30 points twice in the series. Wade seems to be a bit struggling with a minor shoulder injury, but he is declared fit to play in the Finals. And last but not least Lebron James has been simply faultless so far, coming up big in the crucial minutes, rebounding, blocking and destroying defenses. They played their peak basketball of the season when it was the most needed, during the whole Playoffs. They geared up from series to series, producing some of the finest defensive displays against Boston and Chicago.

The Heat averaged 102.1 points and allowed 94.6 in the regular season which is now down to 92.5 (!) and 88.3. Incredible that only once they allowed over 100 points during the 15 games playoff run. They are 10-5-0 ATS and 9-6 O/U. Their totals were set in the 179.5 – 190 range with both times going under the 190 line and also under the second highest 188.5 line. Miami failed to cover the two 10+ spreads against the 76ers, but cashed in on all spreads as a favourite since then.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas put extra emphasize on their defense issues this season, and they were succesfully transformed from a run-and-gun team into a more complex unit with deep bench and various shooting options. They had to change their original lineup after the injury to Caron Butler, but the chemistry works well with Chandler-Nowitzki-Marion-Stevenson-Kidd starting five and the best bench of the league can always be the deciding factor. The Mavs went from a solid to superb in the playoffs, playing unexpectedly effective basketball in away games. Dirk Nowitzki averages 28.7 points per game with a 51.7% FG and a deadly FT rate. He converted 59/61 FT against the Thunder including an NBA record 24/24 performance.

The Mavs averaged 100.2 points and allowed 96.0 in the regular season, that figures are 99.7 and 92.5 in the playoffs. They are 12-2-1 ATS and 9-6 O/U. Their 3 losses came by 5, 2, and 6 points and they always covered as an underdog. The total spreads had a wider range than on the Heat games, streched from 182.5 to 199.5.

The teams seem to be complete and ready as ever, so I’ve chosen 3 questions that could prove to be decisive for the outcome of the series.

 

Which backcourt will have the edge?

The Mavs are deadly 3-point shooters with Nowitzki, Terry, Stojakovic and Kidd in their roster, averaging an outstanding 8.9 3-pointers per game in the playoffs. Their perimeter ball movement is the best in the league when they need to find the free man in double team situations (mostly of course on Nowitzki). The big German made crucial 3-pointers and free throws in all series, and none of the opponents found a way to defend him. In one-on-ones he just simply overthrows anybody, while in double teams he would find the free lurking man or put the defenders into foul troubles and make easy free throws.

Lebron James and Co. will look for transition opportunities and fast breaks. In the clutch situations it will always be James or Wade with the ball and compared to the Mavs, much less is expected from the perimeter men like Bibby, Miller or Chalmers.

Which team will execute the better team defense?

When it comes to team defense, the team on our mind at the moment is the Heat. The way they closed down the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls was superb. James put in some great defending on Derrick Rose (which was a mismatch by their size differences), but against the Mavs it won’t be him who should handle the main defense issues. They will certainly have bigger problems as the Mavs are far from being a one man team like the Bulls have turned out to be. Guarding Nowitzki can be impossible, so tightening their frontcourt defense and rebounding will be crucial. The Mavs have a solid frontcourt in Chandler and Marion on to win the rebound battle and prevent from fast breaks. As I said above, Nowitzki can put anybody into foul troubles, so that’s why I predict a rotation on him from Haslem, Anthony and Bosh. It will be interesting to see how they will cope defending a 7 Ft forward in the perimeter area. Hard times coming for Chris Bosh. On the other hand Dallas will also have mismatches when their small-ball backcourt will meet Dwayne Wade, or in the later stages of the game Lebron James, so we will see the Mavs switching to zonal marking more often then usual.

What the benches can add to the game?

The importance of the benches are obvious here: The Heat bench averaged 16.0 points against the Bulls while the Mavs bench went for 37.2 against the Thunder mostly down to Jason Terry of course. The Heat don’t have any X-factor player on their bench, but if the Big 3 play in form, they only need the bench to back them up. The Mavs will make efforts to put the Big 3 into foul troubles in order to exploit their bench edge. Watch out for Wade’s shoulder, if things get worse it can be dcisive as well. The Mavs can replace anybody but Nowitzki in their lineup, while Miami don’t have capable subsitutes for the big 3 and Bibby.

What to expect betting wise?

Experts expect the totals to be in the range of 185 and 190 which applied to their series against the Lakers and the 76ers. The Heat games in that series went over 190 just once while the Mavs games went over 190 3 times out of 4. The home teams will be favoured by 3-5 points in the series, but the bigger the spread goes over 3 the more I will like the underdog. As I really expect the teams to play close encounters, I will look to take the away team around 2.80-3.00ish odds before the game to trade out below 2.00 in-play. The two teams have exceptional away records, both are capable of stealing a win. The value in the Winner market is on the Mavs of course.

Sit back and enjoy the 2011 NBA Finals, I will be back with another issue soon!

We are 20 days into the 2011 NBA Playoffs season, and all I can say is we are having great entertainment and excitement, tight games and some raw surprises. Big guns struggling, underdogs are covering – so Welcome to Issue 6. of Hoops, let’s dig a bit deeper into the fresh Playoffs trends and numbers!

Dogs on the run!

It was soon understood, that this years Playoff predictions (including mine) should be dropped to the bin and cappers have to start reconsidering their selections from the „Playoffs point of view” instead of the regular seasons. What do I mean here? Well, no doubt we had the most balanced first round matchups since years, even including the 4-0 sweep of New York by the Celtics (which certainly wouldn’t have been a sweep with Billups and Stoudomire both fit), the gap between the teams was tight as it can be.

The dogs are doing great, enough to take a look at the following numbers. Favourites are 18-30-3 ATS with home favourites doing especially badly, 14-23-2 ATS. If we look at the handicap ranges, the favs are recording only 3-20-1 against spreads of 5,5 points or above. We had 28 unders and 23 overs so far. Worth a note that lines of 189 or more are 8-14 O/U, so value is often found in too low or too high lines.

If we take the team stats, 3 teams are jumping out from the rest with their impressive and profitable ATS, the giant killers Atlanta and Memphis and the top form Dallas Mavericks. The former teams were much underrated by the spread at the beginning of their respective series and continued to cover the spread even when the lines shortened. Despite losing twice in Portland, the Mavs have never got beaten by more than 5 points. They are averaging 7 points less and allowing 8 points less than in the regular season, so their over bias didn’t pay off so far in the Playoffs. The stats would show Atlanta allowing 89.1 points on average this Playoffs, but in truth they only allowed more than 88 just 3 times, and only lost once, so try to look behind the numbers when reading trends comparisions. Last years finalists, the Lakers and Celtics find themselves 0-2 in the second round, and that is simply down to their unusally bad defending. The Celtics allowed only 90,7 against the Knicks, while Miami scored against 102 and 99 lately. The Lakers had 89,6 from the Hornets and 94,5 from the Mavericks so far. Speaking of overs, only Memphis have been consistent enough to make it 6-2 O/U, averaging 100.1 points and allowing 97.2.

In-play flops

The underperforming favourites would give us some good opportunities to exploit in-play. According to my notes, the Betfair markets tend to underreact even 15-20 point trails for favourites in the first half, and overreact tight leads in the second half. On Sunday 24/04, Miami were 82-76 up with 1:35 on the clock, when their „usual” end game struggle hit in. Their price on Betfair was as low as 1.04, when Philly started their 10-0 run including two 3-pointers. The market was late to respond, and Miami only started drifting after Wade missed a shot at 0:27.9, still 81-82. Their price would steam to 3.60 in 10 seconds, then the second 3 pointer at 0:8.9 sealed the game. They lost an already won game in the clutch time like they did a couple of times already this season. Coach Spoelstra somehow always chooses the worst option of who to give the game deciding shot.

No wonder that Dallas were also trading around 1.05 on Saturday 23/04 when they turned with a 67-49 lead into the 4th quarter, but the Blazers had the last word when they put together their best 4th quarter of the season, winning it 35-15 and claiming a 84-82 victory. Poor San Antonio were leading by 4 points (98-94) on Sunday 1:06 before the end but their 1.02 backers were let down when they gave the game into the Grizzlies hands and lost 101-98. What would you call a flop if not this?

So laying 1.05 favourites not later than the 3rd quater has produced some healthy returns this Playoffs whether you try to trade it out for a particular ticks profit or just let it go. I will be monitoring this beside some other in-play trends to give you some food for thought.

Title odds

The Chicago Bulls held their price during the series with Indiana, so we came to sort of a resistance point in their steam. Now they are 5.5, but traded as low as 4,8 after advancing from the first round. So if you backed them at 9.00ish odds you should wait with greening until the conference finals as they should be beating the Hawks (famous last words), otherwise you shouldn’t be in the market at all.

Boston came in to 7.40 after advancing from the first round as I expected in Issue 5, but now they are trailing 0-2 and their odds reacted strongly – out to 19.0 now. Steamers of the week are Dallas, who shortened from 25.0 to 6.8 after beating the Lakers twice in LA, well done if you had them at any double digit odds before. Miami are attracting public money steadily, so should they beat Boston to the Conference finals, I will take a lay on them below 2.00.

I think the winner of the OKC – Memphis matchup will be trading at the highest odds for the title from the 4 remaining teams, so OKC’s 9.00 only represents value if you expect them to rush to the Finals.

Good luck with betting and trading, enjoy the second round games!

Gaby

It’s Hoops time again after a 2 weeks break, welcome guys to the 2011 NBA Playoffs edition.

Spurs last 12 games

Before we start analysing the matchups and giving you my NBA betting lines, I owe you the results of the San Antonio Spurs season ending run, where I recommended to oppose them – first on match odds, then in Issue 4 on the spread.

Date	Opponent	ML Odds	Spread	Result
04/13	@Phoenix	1.67	L -3.5	L 103-106
04/12	@LA Lakers	9.5	L +7.5	L 93-102
04/09	Utah	1.17	L -10	W 111-102
04/06	Sacramento	1.15	W -10.5	W 124-92
04/05	@Atlanta	1.43	W -6	W 97-90
04/03	Phoenix	1.13	W -11	W 114-97
04/01	@Houston	2.16	L +2.5	L 114-119
03/31	Boston	1.84	L -1.5	L 97-107
03/28	Portland	2.16	L -3	L 92-100
03/27	@Memphis	2.02	L 2	L 104-111
03/25	@Portland	2.59	W 4.5	L 96-98
03/23	@Denver	2.88	W 5.5	L 112-115

You could have profited from this in many ways:

• Simply betting on their opponents straight up, that’s 8 winning bets out of 12 – 66.6% rate;
• Laying Spurs as a favourite would have resulted in 1.02 points after 5% Betfair commission for a 2.39 liability – that’s 42% ROI;
• Opposing Spurs on the spread would have given us 7 winning bets out of 12 – 10,8% ROI;
• Sticking to my original suggestion the results: 5/5 ML winners and 4/7 ATS winners.

Good profits each way guys, watch out for these tough or meaningless runs in the regular season.

To be honest, I shot blanks with my Boston to hold 2nd spot prediciton in the last edition, but to compensate this Portland did the business by overtaking struggling New Orleans thus avoiding the reigning champions LA Lakers in the first round. We have no clear favourite in the East, but Chicago seem to be strong as ever and Miami found the effective way to play their superstars together. Orlando is not a title candidate at the experts, while Boston are a dark horse with a hard task ahead without the home court advantage. In the West the homecourt advantage will save San Antonio from an upset, but any further injury to Ginobili or Parker could ruin their title hopes this year. Portland and Denver are definitely not underdogs, while the Lakers can be thankful for playing the weakest link New Orleans in the first round.

Eastern Conference

1. Chicago Bulls  vs. 8. Indiana Pacers

• Bulls: 62-20 SU, 49-31-2 ATS, 35-47 O/U, 98.6/91.3 PF/PA
• Pacers: 37-45 SU, 38-42-2 ATS, 37-45 O/U, 99.8/100.9 PF/PA
• Bulls won season series 3-1
• Lines for Game 1: Pacers +11.5, Total 188.5

The first game of the Playoffs season sees the Bulls entertain the Pacers on Saturday evening (GMT). The season series had respective spreads -9, -1, -7, -4 for Chicago with the Bulls not being able to cover only the last one in Indianapolis. Though they rarely cover when they are 10+ favourites, but Indiana struggles in scoring against good defending teams and they only scored over 90 points against the Bulls when they played an OT game in March. Pacers shot only 38% against the Bulls this season, which is the second worst to Dallas. Chicago went through the regular season like a steamroller and the momentum is definitely on their side to outperform the Pacers. My concern about overs and taking them on the ATS is that simply they don’t have to score loads of points to win a game, we often saw them ending up with 90-93 when they were able to hold the opposition off range during the first 3 quaters.

My NBA betting line prediction: Bulls -11.5 and Under, series: Bulls 4-0

2. Miami Heat vs. 7. Philadelphia 76ers

• Heat: 58-24 SU, 40-41-1 ATS, 41-40-1 O/U, 102.1/94.6 PF/PA
• 76ers: 41-41 SU, 46-35-1 ATS, 40-42 O/U, 99.0/97.5 PF/PA
• Heat won the season series 3-0
• Lines for Game 1: 76ers +10.5, Total 190

Miami made the expected 6-1 SU run and took the 2nd spot in the East. Now they are facing the sympathic 76ers, who gave away their 6th position to the New York Knicks in the closing weeks. They lost guard Lou Williams due to injury, who could have been a key to battle with the Miami frontcourt, so spotlights are now on Andre Igoudala to stop Lebron James and Dwayne Wade. They met on 03/25 in Miami, the Heat won 111-99 covering the -8 spread and pushing the game Over 196 points. The regular season games show there is a 9-10 points difference between the sides and I’m happy to oppose Miami when they are favoured over 10 against those hard working sides like Philly.

My NBA betting line prediction: 76ers +10.5 and Under, series: Heat 4-1

3. Boston Celtics vs. 6. New York Knicks

• Celtics: 57-25 SU, 38-42-2 ATS, 37-44-1 O/U, 96.5/91.1 PF/PA
• Knicks: 42-40 SU, 46-34-2 ATS, 42-39-1 O/U, 106.5/105.7 PF/PA
• Celtics won the season series 4-1
• Lines for Game 1: Knicks +6.5, Total 198

The most sounding encounter is the one between the Celtics and the Knicks – the old and the new Big 3. Boston lost their awesome form after the Kendrick Perkins trade and they couldn’t find their match tempo until the end of the regular season. That cost them their home court advantage should they advance from the first round. Don’t let the 4-0 season series blow your mind, the circumstances in those games are not valid anymore, the situation they start this series is pretty different. Celtics tend to play impressively in the first 2 quaters only to give away 20+ leads even to medioce sides and they have problems under the rim with the two O’neals not being 100% fit. New York is strong on individuals, good in scoring but they have defending issues and problems with their bench. Even if they could hold the Celtics to a 6 or 7 games series, the more the bench players would be needed the more advantage Boston have over them.

My NBA betting line prediction:Celtics -6.5 and Over, series: Celtics 4-2

4. Orlando Magic vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

• Magic: 52-30 SU, 35-46-1 ATS, 34-46-2 O/U, 99.2/93.7 PF/PA
• Hawks: 44-38 SU, 37-45 ATS, 34-48 O/U, 95.0/95.8 PF/PA
• Hawks won season series 3-1
• Lines for Game 1: Hawks +8.5, Total 179.5

In my opinion the easiest matchup in the East even though they finished 4. and 5. A total „mismatch” as they would say in the US. Hawks played terribly in March and April, lacked scoring, defending, bench, individuals, completely everything. They were one of the easiest opponents to beat, ending the season with a 0-6 streak, while Orlando are a sleeping beast who can walk over them like last year if they get their usuall playoff gear. 9 out of their last 10 meetings went Under – a trend always to notice – but those were 190ish lines and my feeling is that this series will have at least two overs.

My NBA betting line prediction: Magic -8.5 and Over, series Magic 4-1

Western Conference

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

• Spurs: 61-21 SU, 44-36-2 ATS, 46-36 O/U, 103.7/98.0 PF/PA
• Grizzlies: 46-36 SU, 52-29-1 ATS, 41-41 O/U, 99.9/97.6 PF/PA
• Season series tied 2-2
• Lines for Game 1: Grizzlies +6.5, Total 195

Tricky series this could be as the Grizzlies are a massive team with a good frontcourt and the talented Marc Gasol under the rim. The Spurs switched their profile from a defending team to an effective attacking squad, with their bench playing more and more important role in small-ball situations. Both teams won their home games in the season series, and I’m sure that Memphis will be able to match Spurs on home court again, recording their first ever playoff win since moving to Memphis. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio and the Spurs are 8-2 O/U recently. If Manu Ginobili is to play on Sunday, then my pick is Spurs on the spread, otherwise I will go for the Grizzlies.

My NBA betting line prediction:Spurs -6.5 and Over, series Spurs 4-2

2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7. New Orleans Hornets

• Lakers: 57-25 SU, 39-42-1 ATS, 33-49 O/U, 101.5/95.4 PF/PA
• Hornets: 46-36 SU, 39-41-2 ATS, 31-51 O/U, 94.9/94.0 PF/PA
• Lakers won the season series 4-0
• Lines for Game 1: Hornets +10, Total 183

The Lakers had their chance to clinch the top spot in the West, but eventually they ran into a 5 games losing streak and they were not the same team we saw afer the All-Star anymore. Doubts are rising over Bynum’s knee, while Blake is out with Chickenpox and it is still unsure whether in of his teammates are infected. If so, it would be the end of LA’s hopes – in a weeks time time we will know. The Hornets will miss David West and to top the problems Chris Paul is playing his worst period in his NBA career, simply he couldn’t be the leader when it was needed. The reason I tipped a sweep for the Lakers is that they simply outperform the Hornets in all aspects of the game, won the season series, have the home advantage, while I rate New Orleans even below 8. placed Memphis’s potential. They led the NBA in unders and their games against the top teams tend to go under, but the line seems to be very low for this game, so this might well be a trap from the bookies. The season series games had the line at 188.5 and 190 and they went 3-1 over. Hornets only had 2 games with lower lines than this, finishing 1-1 O/U. I recommend to take the under when the line is set around 190 in their games.

My NBA betting line prediction: Hornets +10 and Over, series Lakers 4-0

3. Dallas Mavericks vs. 6. Portland Trailblazers

• Mavs: 57-25 SU, 44-36-2 ATS, 46-35-1 O/U, 100.2/96 PF/PA
• Blazers: 48-34 SU, 43-36-3 ATS, 38-43-1 O/U, 96.3/94.8 PF/PA
• Season series tied 2-2
• Lines for Game 1: Blazers +5, Total 186

I trust the Blazers to keep their brilliant form led by new acquisition Gerald Wallace. Two teams with deep roster meet in this one and I take it as the matchup with the highest upset potential and the hardest to predict. This could really go either way as the Blazers are capable of stealing a victory in Dallas, while the Mavericks are one of the best road teams in the NBA (28-13). The Blazers are consitent in scoring and rarely go under 90 points, The things that favour Dallas are the potential return of Caron Butler and the always playoffs-sharp Dirk Nowitzki. I think these will be close fought encounters and if the spread stays around 5-8 points I will take Blazers during the matchups.

My NBA betting line prediction: Blazers +5 and Over, series Dallas 4-2

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5. Denver Nuggets

• Thunder: 55-27 SU, 43-38-1 ATS, 45-37 O/U, 104.8/101.0 PF/PA
• Nuggets: 50-32 SU, 44-34-4 ATS, 37-42 O/U, 107.5/102.7 PF/PA
• Thunder won season series 3-1
• Lines for Game 1: Nuggets +5.5, Total 200.5

OKC is a joy to watch scoring 100+ points from game to game and their chemistry has just improved since the Perkins trade, they really got their missing piece of the jigsaw. With scoring charts leader Kevin Durant and versatile guard Russell Westbrook in their lineup they have the ability to outscore anyone – who gives them enough posessions. So who to fear then? For example the Denver Nuggets who scored 100+ points the most games in the league, and they have the best chance to win the game when the opponent also scores over 100. Since the Carmelo trade they went 18-7 clinching 5. place and avoiding title contenders. Their backheel is the lack of a leader-type superstar and their 2 losses lately against OKC are things to worry about. Oklahoma slowed their game by being physical, which resulted in 8 technical fouls and Denver scoring only 89 and 94 points. Experts agree that the home court could decide a lot in this tie and I also expect the teams to win their 2-2 first home games.

My NBA betting line prediction:OKC -5.5 and Over, series OKC 4-2

Title odds

Since first spotted, Chicago shortened from 9.0 to 5.6 (7.6 in time of the last Issue) and they have an excellent chance of making it to the Eastern Finals, so the odds still represent value. Now, Lakers and Heat are a bit short for me, Boston is unpredictable but if you fancy them to do well over the Knicks, their price would shorten to 7.00-8.00 I think. Spurs have reached what I expected and taking the first seeded team in the West for 9.2 is always a nice value.

See you guys next week when I will write about some Playoff trends and in-play trading opportunities. Take it easy!

Gaby

Welcome to Issue 4 of the NBA trading and betting. This week, a short write up is coming up for you about the numbers behind the successful NBA betting.

To achieve constant success in NBA betting, you need to know what „success” means by the language of numbers. The so-called „cappers” at the American sport handicapping services work with the spread and totals to provide their customers daily „guaranteed” picks. Those services often charge horrible sums for unproven results, so why don’t YOU turn your NBA knowledge into profit and save a decent part of your investment?

On the spread and totals markets the bookies offer us odds of -110 American or 1.91 decimal, which means you have to bet 110 units to win 100 or for every 100 unit you bet you win 91. Odds of 1.91 represent a probability around 52,36%, so our breakeven point would be a strike rate of 52,36% if we are straight betting on our selections (1 unit on each).  Whenever you correctly predict the real probability is above that %, you get a value bet. As a simple principle when you bet on a particular game, try to go for something that would happen 6 out of 10 times rather then making 50-50 calls.

So what strike rate can be considered successful? In terms of profit we say a 10% ROI is great in sports betting and that would assume a strike rate of 58% in our case. While anybody can blindly achieve a 50% strike rate long term on two-fold bets, you only need to raise this to 53% to show profit, and just a little further to reach the level of the pros. Professional bettors are always careful with their selections, but they are never afraid to put on 5-10 bets a day if they tend to find value. Remember, winning 55% of 1000 bets will always show more profit than winning 65% of 200 bets. Your expected strike rate is to be taken into account when setting your stake size. At 50% the Expected Losing Sequence (calculated by a mathematical formula) would be around 10-13,3, so staking with 2% of your bank is a safe choice.

The table below shows us the 11 teams that have profitable ATS results this season, stating how many units we would be up if we had been straight betting on them ATS all season. Opposing another 13 teams on the spread also shows profit. 9 teams have profitable over results, while 13 teams have profitbale under results.

Team	ATS	Win%	Units
Memphis	48-26-1	64,86%	+17,68
Chicago	46-27-1	63,01%	+14,86
Philadephia	45-29-1	60,81%	+11,95
New York	41-32-2	56,16%	+5,31
San Antonio	41-32-2	56,16%	+5,31
Dallas	40-33-2	54,79%	+3,4
Houston	40-33-2	54,79%	+3,4
Denver	39-33-2	54,17%	+2,49
Oklahoma	39-33-2	54,17%	+2,49
Detroit	40-34-0	54,05%	+2,4
Portland	37-33-5	52,86%	+0,67

 

You can find the full statistics here:

http://www.thespread.com/stats/nba/teamreport?div=&season=2011&sortby=atswinpct&teamid=

How to use Betfair to enhance your profits?

If you have a 5.00% commission rate on Betfair, you need to back at odds of at least 1.96 to end up with the same profit as of backing at 1.91 with a bookie. So whenever you average higher odds of 1.96 on Betfair with your NBA selections, you are lowering your breakeven point and ensuring more value. If you act in time, you can easily back spread and totals selections around 2.00, even when they are about to shorten due to line movements at the bookies. Remember, if the lines at the bookies and on Betfair are the same, never back a selection under 1.96 and never lay over 2.04.

 

Weekly pigeon catcher

2 weeks before the regular season ends, the teams still have 6-8 games to play. The Playoff matchups would look like the following (as of 1 April):

Eastern Conference Playoff Places

Miami (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS recently) couldn’t overtake Boston (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) despite some below par performances from the Celtics. The Heat led by the Big 3 have some easy fixtures to end the regular season against the likes of Minnesota, New Jersey, Milwaukee and Toronto. They entertain the Celtics in Miami and visit the Atlanta Hawks in their only games against Playoff teams, so if they end their last 7 games worse than 6-1 SU, then forget about them for good and all in this years title race. Boston still face 5 Playoff teams, including the mentioned Heat, Hawks and the Bulls away, 76ers and Knicks at home. Experience shows they like to push at the end of the regular season to gain momentum and to be frank, given how terrible they played lately, only better performance could come from a team of their quality. I predict them to finish 6-2 SU and reaching the 2. spot in the East.

Western Conference Playoff Places

In the West you can see that Portland (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS recently) and New Orleans (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS recently) stand with the same record with the head to head results favouring the Hornets (3-1). Both teams have 5 home and 2 away games to play and altough the Blazers’ fixtures would seem tougher at first sight, in my opinion the Hornets will have more difficulties against the likes of Memphis, Houston and Dallas, and to top it all, key forward David West has pulled out for the rest of the season. The Blazers have more potential to cause upset than any of the 5.-8. seeded teams, so avoiding the top form Lakers in the first round will be essential.

Spurs struggle

In the last edition I recommended to oppose San Antonio and what a surprise they are 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS since, that’s their worst run since 1997! Easier games are coming for them and their starters are back, but going against them on the spread is still recommended. Thanks to their bad run, title odds for the Spurs drifted from 8.6, and as I said last time, 9.6ish odds are already great value on the first seeded team in the West.

Title odds

Chicago continue to shorten on the title odds, 9.0 to 7.6 since Issue 3. I wouldn’t touch Boston’s price now, as they will either have an easy run over or a stiff battle against the Knicks should they hold on to their 2nd spot. A lot will depend on the momentum they can gain in their final 8 games. Jermaine O’neal is back and Shaq will also be available for the Playoffs – a massive boost this could be for the team.

No new article next week as I will be off, but watch out for the Playoffs edition the week after!

Gaby

 

Hi, my name is Gaby (active member of ‘The X-Club’ and this is my first post Pro Trader Tip Blog. I’m honored to be given the chance to share my thoughts about what the world’s most spectacular sport can offer us betting wise and trading wise. My weekly posts will be half-analysing, half-educational as I know that for many of you, basketball on Betfair might sound like hostile waters.

So let’s slam jam into the middle of things and start to get acquainted with the fundaments of betting on the NBA (hardcore punters and Vegas high rollers can skip this part).

The fundaments of betting on the NBA

American bookies try to keep things as simple as they are: when betting on any popular sport in the USA, they would always offer you 2 choices to choose from: either you bet on Team A or Team B to win straight up or on the spread, or you bet on the Lines to be under or over. So there is no „third case”, like ending up in a draw. Just like Asian Handicap markets on Football. This will have significant importance when I will talk about the mathematics of the two-way betting in a later issue.  Let’s dig further into the type of markets available for you on Betfair. (Remember, the trading opportunities will be discussed in later issues of The Weekly NBA Thread.)

Game markets

Betfair offers the following markets on basketball games. In my analysis I will always concentrate on the Match Odds, Handicap and Totals markets, because of the liquidity they have and the trading opportunities they provide. The American terms – which are quite useful when browsing stats – are put in italics. The markets going in-play on games with high interest:

Match odds or Money Line (ML) This simply means picking the favourite or the underdog to win the game straight up (SU). So when I’m saying Boston are 6-4 SU lately, it means they won 6 and lost 4 of the last 10 games. Match odds market plays the central role when trading an NBA game, so either we are looking for under or overpriced teams with an intention to trade out in-play, or we are jumping in the in-play market when the game situation suggests and the odds are there to serve us.

67% of favourites this season go on to win their games, the break-even price is 1.49.

Handicap or Against the Spread (ATS) We’ll always have a point spread set by bookmakers for a game, which is the American term for handicap. The spread is to equilibrate the chances by setting the expected points margin between the teams.  From the time the spread is announced by the Vegas bookmakers, it is subject to change to counteract the weight of money coming in on one particular side. Sharp punters always attack the wrong spreads and lines, so the bookies have to manage their positions. Betting at the announced spread always means a bet at 1.90, so in Vegas the spread changes and not the odds. On Betfair the spread won’t be changing of course, but another spread market could be opened if serious changes are taking place, let’s say the spread on the underdog moves out from +6 to +9. In my opinion the markets role in trading is limited to managing pre-game positions during the game and jumping on 4th quarter opportunities when the gap between the teams is shaping around the spread.

Dogs (51%) and away teams (51%) are doing better against the spread, so be careful when taking favourites with handicap – Vegas guys are doing a superb job this season.

Total match points or Totals

The expected total match points line are set in Vegas like the spread itsef and it is also subject to change until the game starts. Betting on totals needs a much different approach from the punter than picking winners or deciding whether a team will beat the handicap or not. It requires a complete understanding of the game. You not just have to study offensive and defensive stats, player vs. player matchups and squad news. You’ve got to have a plan in mind how the game would evaluate, how the team styles and tempo of play will affect the flow of points. Totals betting is a thing to keep an eye on in the Playoffs, when teams meet each other in series of games, thus giving us a better insight to measure their scoring abilities. In-play we can gain advantage when the flow of points lags behind or exceeds the expected rate. What I’m talking about? Say the Line for the game is set at 196.5 points. This means we expect around 49 points per quarter, 41 points every 10 minutes, around 4 points every minute, etc. When trading the lines you should be well aware of these numbers.

51% of all games played so far this season went Under, which shows the prediction and analytical skills of the Vegas odds compilers again. New Orleans have a standout stat for Unders, 65% of their games finished below the line.

Other in-play markets:

• Half time match odds
• Team A Player vs Team B Player scoring

Team totals

The markets suspended at the start of the play:

• 1st Quater handicap
• 1st Half handicap
• 1st Quarter points
• 1st Half points
• Half time match odds

Weekly pigeon catcher

We have 6 weeks to go until the Playoffs start and the current standings would mean the following matchups:

Eastern Conference

1st	(43-15)	Boston Celtics	-	Indiana Pacers	(27-32)	8th
2nd	(43-17)	Miami Heat	-	Philadelphia 76ers	(30-30)	7th
3rd	(41-17)	Chicago Bulls	-	New York Knicks	(30-28)	6th
4th	(39-22)	Orlando Magic	-	Atlanta Hawks	(36-24)	5th

Western Conference

1st	(49-11)	San Antonio Spurs	-	Memphis Grizzlies	(34-28)	8th
2nd	(44-16)	Dallas Mavericks	-	Portland Trailblazers	(33-27)	7th
3rd	(43-19)	Los Angeles Lakers	-	New Orleans Hornets	(35-27)	6th
4th	(36-22)	Oklahoma City Thunder	-	Denver Nuggets	(35-26)	5th

 

When looking at the standings it is much obvious that the 6 division leaders can’t be caught. In the Eastern Conference the Charlotte Bobcats (26-33) still stand a chance of grabbing the last Playoffs spot, while the Knicks should be able to keep their 6th place after strenghtening with Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, though I give no chance for them against Chicago with such a weak bench they have.

Strong competition is expected in the Western Conference 5-6-7-8th places with Phoenix (31-27) also hoping for catching the 8th spot. Utah might seem to have a chance as well by their record (32-29), but if you know what is going on with the franchise at the moment, it is clear that they started a rebuild, so the Playoffs is not a target for them anymore in order to grab a good place in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Miami have a very tough schedule until March 20th: hosting Orlando, Chicago, Portland, Los Angeles, Memphis, San Antonio, Oklahoma and Denver, away games in San Antonio and Atlanta – all Playoff material teams and the Heat are hardly unbeatable. I expect them to be favoured by the spread in all home games -not to mention public bets  – but the value will lie with their opponents prices. I reckon we could trade out their opponents pre game Match Odds in-play with good profits, so keep an eye on this guys!

I hope you enjoyed reading my first NBA betting/trading post and I will speak soon

Cheers:

Gaby