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Superleague Preview – Broncos v Wakefield

March 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Today’s Super League game sees Wakefield head down the M1 to take on London Broncos at The Stoop in a game that can be seen live on Sky Sports 1 at 5.45pm.

We’ve been spoilt with televised top of the table clashes over the last couple of weeks and today’s game gives us a chance to see two teams battling at the bottom to climb up the table.

London have won only once this season registering a 42-16 home victory over fellow strugglers Castleford and whilst visitors Wakefield have notched only two wins themselves, they come into this game on the back of an excellent 32-22 victory over Catalan Dragons.

Prior to that they were unfortunate not to take the points against high fliers Warrington and went down by only two points in a 32-30 reverse and whilst they’re in the bottom half of the table, their defensive record is not much worse than teams in the top half of the table.

The same can’t be said for the Broncos who have shipped in 276 points in their opening eight games and only Super League new boys Widnes have an inferior defence.

Wakefield have had a tricky set of opening fixtures and whilst they have lost five, they haven’t been really thumped by anyone and boss Richard Agar feels they are making good progress and heading in the right direction whilst London seem to be struggling as their defensive record shows.

This is a game that Wakefield will feel they can take the two points back up North and further build on last week’s good win and their great performance against Warrington.

 On The Account

I’m looking at London’s defensive frailties and feel that the Time Of 1st Away Try Under 17:59 at 1.83 with Blue Sq. is a fair shout and should see a return.

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Superleague Preview – Warrington v St Helens

March 30, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Another heavyweight clash this evening sees Warrington entertain St Helens in a game which can be seen live on Sky Sports 1 at 8pm.

Both teams came out on top of last weekend’s big games against Wigan and Leeds respectively and confidence will be high in both camps. Warrington were two point winners at Wigan last Friday although it was another performance far from the Wolves’ best and they haven’t really hit their top mark at all this season. That said, it’s the equivalent of a football team playing well below par and grinding out wins and Warrington will be happy to have the two points from the Wigan game.

St Helens blew Leeds out of the water on Sunday evening with a performance and result that I, along with many, certainly didn’t see coming. Looking back on the game, Saints were certainly good value for their win and played some good stuff but I think they were aided with the fact that Leeds just didn’t show up and were surprisingly poor opposition on the day.

 Warrington have Garreth Carvell and Mickey Higham available again following injury and suspension, although big Ben Westwood is on the naughty boy step for this game after forgetting that you can neither tackle players around their head or smash them in the face.

Saints are pretty much at full strength meaning they’ll have quality interchanges to utilise during the game and that may well come into it.

It’s a tricky one to call outright in my opinion with both teams coming into this game on the back of big wins and confidence high. That said, Warrington have been far from their best and whilst I’m taking nothing away from Saints’ effort last Sunday, Leeds just didn’t show up.

Last week aside, Saints’ defence has been suspect on numerous occasions so far this season and it’ll be back under pressure this evening from an attacking Wolves side, but Saints also have the ammunition and attacking skills to test their opponent’s line.

On the Account

This could well turn into a tight tussle similar to the Wigan v Warrington game last week and I’d recommend going into this game with a lay bet on Warrington (1.55 at the time of writing) with the opinion that a tight game will give an opportunity in play to green up and take a profit from the trade.

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Super 15 – Week 6 Betting & Trading Overview.

March 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

This round seemed like it would be a tough week on paper before i had seen what the markets were offering and on reflection presents us with some good opportunities.

Highlanders vs Rebels

Difficult game to call from a betting perspective, the 1.3 suggests a home win and i agree with that but i would like better odds. My tip would be to wait to see if you can get better odds in play. The hcp lines are 7.5. Beale is back for the Rebels. I can’t see an angle with any value so no bet for me on this one. I may try a lay pre match with a hope to back them later if the Rebels can start strongly.
If pushed it would be the Highlanders -7.5 @ 1.9or better

No official bet.

Hurricanes vs Cheetahs

The Cheetahs have played some entertaining rugby so far this season and i expect that continue this weekend. It may be a game with uncontested scrums as the cheetahs are missing some props…The hcp line is around 9 and for me offers no real value either way. I feel this is an overs game but would like to see the conditions first.

1pt over 48.5 @ 1.9 or better if dry.

Chiefs vs Waratahs at Hamilton on Sat Mar 31

The Chiefs go into this game at 1.5 fav’s, and the hcp offers 4.5. I feel its a perfect game to lay both teams at 1.5 as it could easily have both teams exchanging the lead, i would prefer to get my first lay in before half time. My bet is for the Chiefs to overcome the 4.5 hcp at 1.9 or better.

1pt Chiefs -4.5 @ 1.9 or better.

Brumbies vs Sharks

The betting suggests a close game with both teams around evens. The hcp line at 1.5-2.5 @ around 1.9 or better offers the obvious choice for me for the Brumbies.

1pt Brumbies + 1.5 @ 1.9 approx.

Force vs Reds at Perth

The Reds are back in oz after an horrific trip to SA and the news isn’t getting any better in a hurry. As they are my team i hate going against them normally but can’t see them getting past anyone at the moment. The betting sees both around evens. And the hcp line is 1.5.

1pt Force + 1.5 @ 1.9 approx.

Lions vs Crusaders

The Crusaders have been less than impressive for me and although they go in 1.3 favs against the Lions, This will be the best chance the home team has had to cause an upset for a long time. Great opp to lay the fav’s here and trade out at a higher price during the game.

1pt Lions + 8.5 @ 1.9 or better.

Stormers vs Bulls

Stormers go in slight favs here, and although i can’t find a market with any value pre game it could be a case of going against the best starter again with a 1.5 lay on both IF you get one before half time.

No official bet

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Superleague Preview – St Helens v Leeds

March 25, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Another big game today sees St Helens entertain Leeds Rhinos in a game that can be seen live on Sky Sports 1.

Saints have had a shocking start to their Super League campaign and their poor run of form and results ultimately cost coach Royce Simmons his job. Former St Helens and Great Britain legend Keiron Cunningham is filling the void left by Simmons’ departure until a new, permanent coach is named.

Cunningham will have no problem getting the Saints players fired up for a repeat of last season’s Grand Final which saw them beaten at Old Trafford by the Rhinos. The return of influential playmaker James Roby will certainly aid their cause but they are coming up against a Leeds team full of confidence and on a good run of results.

Leeds have already seen off fellow heavyweights Warrington this term and already have some silverware in the Headingley cabinet following their impressive World Club Challenge victory over Manly Sea Eagles. They weren’t over worked in last week’s 56-16 stroll over Salford Reds and despite one or two regulars in the treatment room, the Rhinos come into this game full of confidence.

Saints will be desperate to get their season back onto a winning track but I think it will be difficult for them today against a very good Leeds outfit. Certainly a bright start is to be expected from Saints in front of a noisy home backing but Leeds can get a grip and control this game after early Saints pressure.

On the Account

It’s been a difficult few weeks for St Helens and whilst I do think they’ll come out of the woods eventually, I don’t think it’ll be today and I recommend backing Leeds in the match betting market at a best priced 1.90 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing.

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Superleague Preview – Wigan v Warrington

March 23, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Tonight’s Super League game is a heavyweight clash as Wigan host Warrington at the DW Stadium in a game that can be seen live on Sky Sports 1.

Once again the Warriors and Wolves are being tipped to lift the major honours this season and a victory for either side this evening will lift them to the top of the League table and give an early psychological boost over their close rivals.

Neither team has been at their fluent best this season and both defences have come under scrutiny not least Wigan’s following their amazing 37-36 defeat at rock bottom Widnes where some High St. Bookmakers had Wigan at 1/100 in the match betting.

Warrington’s defence has also been anything but watertight and they were fortunate to scrape home against lowly Wakefield last weekend and prior to that they shipped in 26 points against Leeds Rhinos at Headingley.

That aside, neither team will need firing up for tonight’s game and both defences are in for a busy shift. There are some great playmakers on both sides with the likes of England internationals Sam Tomkins and Richie Myler to name just two. Both backs will be looking to unlock defences with their trickery following what should see some huge clashes in the forward department with human wrecking ball Adrian Morley leading the Wolves challenge up against the Wigan pack.

The form lines have been sketchy but as the old adage goes ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’ and we have two class teams that will be itching to put on a good show.

Wigan are virtually at full strength against a Warrington side that is carrying one or two injuries, but there is still not too much between the two sides. If you do fancy a full strength Wigan with the home advantage then Even money is available on the handicap line of -4. I’m not overly confident on that score as Warrington do have it in their locker to get a result and personally I think there are other options to get a profit out of the game.

On the Account

With regard to defence issues that both sides have, I think that the Time Of 1st Away Team Try Under 18:59 at 1.83 with Blue Sq. is a fair shout as Warrington do have the muscle to get up the pitch and put Wigan’s defence under the cosh with good ball players to get over the line.

Same can be said for Wigan and the excellent Sam Tomkins in the Anytime Try Scorer Market at 2.0 with Ladbrokes is a very good shout in my book.

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Super 15 – Week 5 Betting & Trading Overview.

March 23, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Blues vs Hurricanes 

If pushed it would be the Canes on the +4.5 hcp at around evens i believe is the value choice here despite last season’s result. They had an excellent record at home last season. The Blues are missing plenty of players through injury and suspension this week.

No official bet.

Rebels v Force

A good performance by the Force up front, ruined my pick v the Waratahs last week and everything i have seen suggests a close game here, the potential to be a high scoring affair so the over 48.5 looks good but would want 1.9 before considering. I will be looking for the value bet here with the home team around 1.95.

1pt Melbourne Rebels @ 1.95 approx.

 Waratahs vs Sharks

The Tahs have had a strange season so far and have lost a few close games and were terrible last week, they are still missing a few key players. There is no chance of me backing them at the current 1.6 or so. They are more than capable of winning but as far as value goes in this one the value is with the Sharks on the hcp +3.5 at 1.9 or better.

1pt Sharks +3.5 @ 1.9 or better.

Crusaders vs Cheetahs

No surprises the Crusaders go in fav’s here, but at 1.08 ? A very cheap lay bet for me. Iin the hcp markets, the Cheetahs with around 17.5 head start looks interesting. The Crusaders are at home for the first time since the devastating earthquakes last year, this should be an advantage. As i have said before they have been the team to beat for many seasons. For me the overs at around evens seems the best way in.

1pt over 48.5 at 1.9 or better.

Brumbies vs Highlanders

Difficult game to call outright and the highlanders as fav’s is right in my opinion at 1.6 and higher. I think it will be a close game though and can’t find an angle with any real value.

No bet for me. If i was pushed it would be for the fav’s @ better than 1.6

Bulls vs Reds at Pretoria

The Reds go into this match with their 4th choice fly half….and the Bulls are 1.3 favs as a result. The hcp line at -7.5 looks a great bet as i can’t see the reds scoring many points with Harris missing and they will struggle to create opportunities.

1pt Bulls -7.5 @ 1.9 or better

Lions vs Stormers

Stormers go in big favs at 1.35 approx. And seems a fair call. I expect an away win here, the hcp lines give the Lions a + 8.5 hcp which is interesting but i’m not sure it will be enough.

No bet

So far we have made some good profit, even better if you used some of the info in play. All the best for the weekend.

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Sri Lanka v England Test Series – Betting Preview

March 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment

England begin the second part of the Tour of The Sub Continent this Winter next Monday 26th of March in Galle. After the drubbing Pakistan handed out to England in The UAE, Andrew Strauss will be keen for his Team to bounce back and show their mettle in The 2 Test Match Series.

After the Tsunami of 2004, The Test Match Ground at Galle was completely wiped out and after some wonderful fundraising by Ian Botham & Shane Warne (who took his 500th Test Wicket) on The ground and the The Cricket fraternity as a whole, Test Match Cricket has returned to Galle and an exciting Test Match is forecast.

In the last Test at the ground in September, Australia managed to win in 4 days and my first trading advice for The 1st Test would be to lay the draw at 2.66 on Betfair. I think this price is good value as Galle lends itself to producing result wickets and in such an abbreviated Test Series, both teams will be looking to get on the front foot straight away in the First session and gain the early ascendency in The Series.

With only  2 Tests to play with and The 2nd Test  being played in Colombo a flatter wicket, it could transpire that there may only be one result in this series and it may well prove a viable option to Dutch both sides to win The Series 1-0. England are best price at 11/4 with Bet365 to win 1-0 and Sri Lanka are 9/2 with Sportingbet to win by a similar score line.

Dutching either team pays a shade over 6/5 at 2.22 best prices and if you don’t want to pick a winner could be a decent option if you agree the first test won’t end in a draw. You will be able to laybet the team leading after the first test to win the series at short odds.

England have a poor record in Sri Lanka not having won there since 2000-2001 when Graham Thorpe & Marcus Trescothick batted with real gusto and Robert Croft and Ashley Giles wore down the Sri Lankan batting and it is questionable whether they have a batsman of Thorpe’s class now who was so expert in manoeuvring the ball around the field and sweeping with consummate ease

Looking at The Top England Batsman Market, Ladbrokes will pay out on The Top 3 each way as per The Pakistan Series and with only 2 Tests this would seem a good market to look out. Andrew Strauss has never played a Test Match in Sri Lanka and the conditions, particular the humidity take some time to acclimatise to when batting under a helmet for a length of time.

Three current players average over 40 in Sri Lanka – Alastair Cook, Ian Bell & Matt Prior. However, whether I would want to be taking 11/4 about Cook, who will open the batting against a moving ball and may only conceivably bat for 2 innings is not my cup of tea nor would I back Bell who was woefully out of form in The Pakistan Series. Prior has improved immeasurably as a Test Match Cricketer since his last Trip to the former Ceylon in 2006/07 and  at 12/1 with Ladbrokes offers real value as England bat deep and no longer have an exposed tail.

Two other players to have on your side in the above market are Kevin Pietersen and Tim Bresnan. Pietersen has a habit of bouncing back when the flak starts to fly and at 4/1 (Ladbrokes) he can provide some fireworks hopefully for England’s Supporters  and Traders. Also, England missed Bresnan badly in The Pakistan Series as he bowls a heavy ball, bats at a quick tempo and is a good egg to have around the dressing room. He possesses similar traits to Craig White who excelled in Sri Lanka in 2001 and scored a Test Hundred on that Tour. At 100/1 (Ladbrokes) each way he is worth a small interest in The England Top Batsman market. It is worth keeping an eye on The Team Selection on Monday but England will be a stronger more resilent side if Bresnan is in their ranks.

If you are looking  at Wicket takers in the Series, it may well be prudent to take on Jimmy Anderson in The 2nd Test in Colombo where he failed to take a wicket in the match staged there in the 2003/04 Series

If The Series as is pulsating as The 2 Test Match Series offered up by South Africa and Australia last year we will be in for a treat. Sri Lanka are not the force they were without Murali but England have to overcome their aversion to winning in Asia and their capitulation against Pakistan if they are to triumph.

On The Account

  • Lay the Draw @ 2.66 Betfair in the 1st Test
  • Dutching either team to win the series 1-0 (consider closing for a profit after the first test if a positive result)
  • 1pt win Back Matt Prior – Top England bat @ 12/1 (13.0) Ladbrokes
  • 1pt win Back Kevin Pietersen – To England bat @ 4/1 (5.0) Ladbrokes
  • 0.25pts win Back Tim Bresnan – Top England Bat @100/1 (101.0) Ladbrokes
  • 1 pt Lay Jimmy Anderson – Top England wicket taker @ close to 4.0 on Betfair (if possible)
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Sony Ericsson 2012 Open – Betting Preview

March 21, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The BNP Paribas Open concluded on Sunday with Roger Federer and Victoria Azarenka the deserved victors. If you managed to follow my tournament preview from the start you would  be feeling a little flush with money seeing that both Federer and Nadal were backed at over 5.0 and John Isner who reached the final at over 100.00 on Betfair  (the American shortened to below 4.0 in the final)

Now that the success of Indian Wells has subsided, we move swiftly from California on the West Coast, straight over to the east coast of America and yet another highly lucrative Master Series and Premier event is at our disposal, the Sony Ericsson Open taking place in Miami Florida.

Besides the four Grand Slam championships, the Sony Ericsson Open is one of the few events on the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) and WTA tours where the main singles draw (for both the men and the women) involves more than 64 players and where main draw play extends beyond one week. 96 men and 96 women compete in the singles competition, and 32 teams compete in each of the doubles competitions. The event lasts 12 days.

Similar to that of Indian Wells in many aspects, The Miami Open also claims to be the biggest and best Master Series event on tour attracting over 316,000 spectators each year as well as the top ranked players in both the women’s and men’s events.

Not only is this week’s Miami Open classed as the most glamorous and most prestigious tournament outside of the Grand Slam events, 2012 is also a significant year due to the fact that this year’s ladies champion will actually take home more than the eventual men’s event winner (Ladies Champion =$712,000, Men’s = $659,775), Miami also welcomes the return of three past champions, the infamous Williams sisters and the former world number one, veteran Kim Clijsters…..

Facts and Figures:

  • The “Winter Wimbledon” as it was first dubbed, had its first ball struck in February 1985 with Tim Mayotte and Martina Navratilova the first champions of the tournament.
  • World number three, Roger Federer is bidding to regain the Miami trophy he lifted in 2005 and 2006. The Swiss also finished runner-up in 2002 and enters with a 40-11 record
  • Serena Williams has won this event a record five times and joins a list of big names among the un-seeded contingent that includes sister Venus and four-time Grand Slam champion Kim Clijsters.
  • Nadal is looking to add a first Sony Ericsson Open crown to his collection of 19 Masters 1000 trophies. The Spaniard finished runner-up in 2005, 2008, and 2011
  • Not since 2006 has the number one seed in the men’s draw been crowned the winner, furthermore only twice has the number one seed triumphed in Miami in the last thirteen years and that was Roger Federer in 2005 and 2006.

Court Surface

There are eighteen courts with the Laykold Cushion Plus surface in the Crandon Park facility, ten courts are used for competition and the other eight are used as practice courts.

The Laykold Cushion Plus surface is rated by the ITF as a medium-slow court one of the slowest hard-court surfaces on tour. Some statistical web-sites even go as far as pointing out that Miami is actually slower than Indian Wells, based on the percentage of points won on serve over the course of the event and the amount of aces per game played.

With the stormy, humid, and moist weather conditions affecting the ball speed, generally slowing the ball down, we can predict similar outcomes in the early rounds of both events to that of Indian Wells, with the playing conditions favouring the clay-court specialists and base-liners.

Players to watch out for:

Men’s Draw

Although Djokovic is the deserved favourite priced at 3.05 on Betfair in the outright winner market having won titles here in 2011 and 2007, The Serbian has a tough looking draw with the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer and Roger Federer all in his half, only last week the world number one was knocked out by American John Isner in the semi-finals.

Instead my recommendation is to back Rafael Nadal @4.80, with outside bets on Tomas Berdych @80.0 Kevin Anderson @370.0

The Spaniard who was outclassed last week in Indian Wells by Roger Federer after having a lengthy break after his Australian Open final appearance, has what looks to be a comfortable route into the semi-final where he will avoid meeting either Federer or Djokovic who are both situated in the top half of the draw.

Both the playing conditions and the speed of the surface should favour the world number two, furthermore, having won through four matches in Indian Wells, the left-hander will be comfortable with his preparations coming into this week’s event.

Miami is one of the few events that Nadal is yet to win, therefore his motivation and will to win could see the former world number one go that one step further than his three finals appearances in 2011, 2008, and 2005.

Berdych is another player who has a decent record in Miami having reached the final in 2010 and the semi-final in 2008. The seventh seeded Czech has a potential fourth round clash against either Tipsarevic or Nalbandian and then the prospect of facing Andy Murray in the quarter-finals, a player he has a 3-2 head-to-head series lead over.

Kevin Anderson is a player I believe will have a breakthrough year in 2012 and could cause a few upsets in Miami. The 25 year-old South African won the Delray Beach Open in February of this year, defeated Novak Djokovic here in 2008 and reached the quarter-final stage at last year’s event where he knocked home favourite John Isner out in the fourth round.

Ladies Draw

The ladies draw has a red hot favourite, Victoria Azarenka who is on an incredible twenty three match run without a loss.  Only last week the 2012 Australian Open champion triumphed in Indian Wells and has a pretty comfortable route into the Semi-finals where she could possibly meet Petra Kvitova. The Belarusian should be considered a serious back even at a short price of 2.50 currently on offer with Betfair having won here both in 2011 and 2009.

With the rest of the draw wide open the only two players I would consider backing would be Serena Williams @8.0 and Maria Sharapova @9.70.

Serena has a formidable record in Miami with fifty two wins and only six losses; she has won this tournament no less than five times previously, and has won an impressive 86% of her last fifty matches in the United States.

Although the multi Grand Slam winner has competed in only two matches since her Australian Open debacle where she was defeated by the little known Russian Ekaterina Makarova in the fourth round, there are few players in her half of the draw who are in-form and can test her Miami credentials, therefore I expect Serena to reach at least the semi-final stage of the tournament.

Maria Sharapova is another player I fancy to go far in this tournament and is worth backing at anything over 9.0; the Russian world number two reached the final here in 2005, 2006, and 2011 and also comes into this week of the back of an impressive Indian Wells campaign where she also made the final.

Recommended Tournament Bets:

Back Rafael Nadal @4.80 and Serena Williams @8.0

Ben’s Account Bets

To obtain all the account bets throughout this tournament you need to register for the service, its totally FREE

Free tennis betting tips

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Superleague Preview – Bradord v St Helens

March 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Today’s televised Super League game sees Bradford hosting St Helens which can be seen live on Sky Sports 2.

The Bulls have had to cope with a mile long injury list for the start of the campaign and you have to take your hat off to them as they have dug deep and put in some workmanlike performances and ground out some good results against the odds.

The Bulls injury list isn’t getting much shorter but Saints will arrive at Odsal with their own injury problems and they are missing a handful of regular first teamers themselves with the influential James Roby to name just one of many.

In my opinion the injuries that Saints are carrying have made this a much closer contest than the odds suggest.

I certainly wouldn’t be backing Saints at 1/2 which is the general quote from the High St bookies.

On the Account

Saints are (at the time of writing) available to lay at 1.53 and I’ll be taking them on as I can see them trading at a bigger price in play if not by kick off. I’d recommend putting 4 times your normal stake into the market for any pre game move on Saints odds and 3 times your stake into the in play market.

Could be a close one and I’m staying on the fence with regard to the handicap line and I’ll be taking any trading profit.

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Six Nations 2012 Betting Preview – Week 5

March 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Gave a little back last week, a late Ireland try mean’t they went beyond my winning margin spread, still a good profit thus far on the tournament and hopefully we can round off by adding a bit more in the coffers.

Italy v Scotland

The match for the wooden spoon and to be honest I struggling to find a decent betting angle on the match, I am not going to force things so I will keep my powder dry on this game.

Wales v France

The welsh are going for the Grand Slam and much of the quest will be down to the roof being shut, if it is then I expect Wales to win the game and cover the -4 point handicap being offered by Blue SQ but the dynamics of the game could change if the roof is open and the rain comes. My advice would be wait until you know the situation in Cardiff before placing your bet.

England v Ireland

I got England totally wrong in week, but I have them winning on my tissue by 6 points which is quite a bit above the handicap spreads with the bookmakers, so I am going to play it safe by covering a 15 spread by dutching 1-10 points with 11-15 winning margin. This ramps the price up to 6/5 (2.20) at best prices and I feel that offers the better option that backing them on the handicap.

If you want to play it safe then you could consider adding Ireland to win by 1-5 in the mix, this will drop the price down to 1.60 but you have a bit of insurance if England don’t win. However if you agree with me that England will win the game and can’t see them doing so by more than 15 points the above line has to be considered.

In Summary

Both the recommended bets are going on the account, England winning margin 1-15 points at 2.20 bets prices and if the roof is shut Wales to cover the -4 points handicap at 1.80 with Blue SQ hopefully we can finish this years Championship with a couple winning account bets.

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