We have the International break in the Premier League and it gives us the perfect opportunity to reflect on the whirlwind start in the Premier League and look for possible trading opportunities in the markets.

One early trend coming through is the number of 0-0 draws already this season, 6 from 29 matches (20.69%), the 10 year average for the Premier League is 8.3% and if you would like to explore this subject in more detail then I recommend you read Andrew’s comments at Betting Expert Blog. Out of those 0-0′s three have occurred in the 12 live TV matches (25%), I have to spare a thought for the lay the draw boys, as you have to add WBA goal against Chelsea to the mix (the draw price went in after the baggies goal). All this equates to a misarable 67% success rate on laying the draw at kick-off.

Goals have been at a premium so far this season and if you eliminate Man Utd, Man City & Chelsea from the mix (8 out 9 matches) have seen over 2.5 goals. In the remaining 20 matches, 1just 5 of those have resulted in underover 2.5 goals (25%).

Future Pointers

Dutching Man Utd & Man City to win the league only pays 1.38 on Betfair, you can ramp that price up a bit by dutching the straight forcast between them both, that will pay around 2.15 on Betfair. Given the start by both teams, I think the team that finishes above Utd will win the league and City are looking like the biggest dangers.

As a trader the question you need to be asking yourself is how the markets will react in the short and medium term, you see whenever you choose to enter the market there is always a 50-50 chance that you get your entry position right.

Looking at the fixtures on both teams in September and upto the first Manchester derby on the 23rd of October I feel City have the easiest run of matches.

• Utd play: Bolton (a), Benfica (a),  Chelsea (h), Stoke (a), Basel (h), Norwich (h), Liverpool (a), Galati (a) & Man City (h)
• City play: Wigan (h), Napoli (h), Fulham (a), Everton (h), Bayern Munich (a), Blackburn (a), Villa (h), Villarreal (h) & Man Utd (a)

As you can see Manchester Utd are trading around 11/8 (2.38) on Betfair and the question you ask yourself as a trader is what is the shortest price they will be if they win the next 5 league games and say Man City drop say 5 or 6 points?

I feel that would give you the very worst case senerio, from this point you can start to workout your maximum risk. In this example I feel the shortest price Utd could go if they go 5 or 6 points clear at the top of the table is around 1.60.

Lets say we put a £500 laybet into the market at 2.40, that would give us an opening liability of £700. It should be remembered we’re not risking this amount of money as we have identified our stop-loss (1.60), so our maximum risk is £250 based on the suggested opening position.

Pro Trader Tip: You should embrace risk as trader because its something that can be calculated in advance, but you should remember no reward is worth risking everything.

All about timing

One of the main differences between pro traders and novices is the timing into the market, if you take this proposed trade I know that Man City in their next match play before Utd do at Bolton, which is tea-time game on Saturday.

On paper; both teams should win and based on that assumption it could be better to wait until after these matches are played? I am not so sure, let me explain.

My thought process for over the next few matches Utd could trade higher than their current quote on Betfair, so your entry point needs to be based on how well Man City will do in their next match at home to Wigan.

If you think they will win the match then you open a position on utd (laybet), if you don’t then you hold your position and do not enter the market.

If Man City beat Fulham, then Utd have to beat Bolton for the prices to remain pretty much the same as we see now, there may be some minor adjustments depending on other results.

It should be remembered that Utd only won 5 games away and will drop points in at least 33% of the matches, that figure was closer to 40% last season.

Some other factors to consider if City beat Wigan, Utd’s price could drift during the game if Bolton take the lead, so you could put yourself in a strong trading position

Pro Trader Tip: If the above happens generally I put an exit point half way between the price drifts to and your entry point. More often than not the big teams score next or go onto win.

Example: Say Bolton lead 1-0 and utd’s price drifts to 3.0 in the winners market, I would put an exit position in the market at 2.70 to at least take something out of the market. If Utd lose this exit point is unlikely to be hit and you’re in a position of strength going into the next game.

If utd go onto to win, the price in the winners market may return close to the pre-game price and once again you’re faced with a similar decision. Except you have now bank a bit of profit (£55.55) based on the above prices and this potentially reduces your maximum risk to less than £200 and Utd would have to hit below 2.16 before you even have a red book.

Position Of Strength: Once you have gained profit you’re in a position of strength to leverage further profits, its perfectly acceptable to set an exit point at the scratch position.

In Summary

I will revisit this potential trade closer to the next game and will document if I open a position within this market. Over the next few days I will be back with a look at the Premier League relegation market.