I am known as ‘The Accountant’ within the community of the X-Club and my major trading sport is tennis and with the clay season or European swing of the ATP & WTA season is nearly upon us, so with this in mind I’d like to take a look at the differences between trading the ATP & the WTA.

Overall the volatility in prices and volumes being matched in tennis are such that it is fast becoming “the” sport to trade live. However, the volatility in each in slightly different and we as traders need to be aware of this. So, let’s take a look at the primary differences;

1. The Serve

I’m stating the obvious here but in mens tennis the serve is at a much higher speed and it comes into the receiver from a much higher height/angle than on the ladies tour and therefore it is harder to return. So, if a big server is on form serve wise on the ATP, there is little that can be done by the returner. Equally however if the server is not on form with his serve it will disrupt his entire game. Case in point of this would be Soderling. He’s unplayable when his serve is on form but he’ll beat himself when his serve is off form.

The ladies serve (bar the Williams sisters when they play) comes over the net at a slower speed and from a lower launch angle; thus the balls are easier see and therefore easier return. This means that a lady on good serving form on the WTA can still be broken; and a lady on poor serving form might as well not turn up!

Also we should note that for players, the serve tends to come into form for matches and even tournaments; you should therefore be aware of who is serving well/not well coming in tournaments/matches and use this to profit.

2) Number of break points created

Following on from the quality of the serve; this leads us to the number of break points being created; again, a quick review of any stats will show you that there’s normally 2/3 times more break points created in an average WTA match than in an average ATP match. This means that there should be 2/3 times more trading opportunities on a WTA match.

However, and this is a key difference between trading the two tours, the market have already factored this into their prices; a break point on the ATP will be worth around twice the ticks of a break point on the WTA. In fact situations regularly occur where a service game hold on the WTA can be worth more in ticks than a break of serve.

3) Number of converted break points

Again, any quick review of stats will show you that conversion rates for break points are not as high as you would think; on both tours conversion rates tend to average around the 35-45% mark. Given that the market has essentially factored in the market the price for the break it can be dangerous to assume that a game break will automatically follow a break point.

As a general trading rule you can assume that less break points are converted on the WTA than on the ATP; especially when you get into the later rounds in the tournaments.

4) Quality of the returning player profile

Having noted the strength and form of the server you will need to profile the strength and form of the returner also. Again this is more important on the ATP due to the speed and angle of the serve; take David Ferrer; if a server is not on form against him they will find more and more balls flying back past them as they serve; he is small, with a low centre of gravity and has excellent groundstrokes; this is key to being a good returner; compare this to say Karlovic; he is big, ackward and slow; so when these 2 meet, if Karlovics’ serve is not on form Ferrer will punish him with good returns; while Ferrer can serve maybe only  average stats but still may suffer no break points. While the quality of the returner is also important on the WTA, it is less of an overall factor in the game as the serves coming over the net are easier to deal with in general.

5) Number of retirements

The curse of any traders’ day is where a retirement forces their good trades to scratch or their bad trades to close out without a chance to recover losses. Stats wise a retirement on the WTA is much more likely than on the ATP so traders should bare this in mind.

6) 5 sets vs 3 sets in majors

This is an obvious point but the ATP majors are all best of 5 set affairs; this means that as traders our price points for these events will be much different than the standard ATP events. Therefore, a break in the first set of a major will be worth much less than a break in the first set of a say a Masters event. There is obviously no difference here for the WTA which is beneficial as your systems can remain the same for all tournaments across the season.

7) Quality of worlds top 30

One thing that you will notice very quickly on the WTA is the varied amount of winners of the various events. What this tells us is that at the moment there is less of a difference in standards between the top 30 ladies on the WTA than on the mens tour; what it also tells us is that there is an inconsistency in those at the top seeds in the WTA events. If you take an ATP event where Nadal, Federer and Djokovic are playing; it is very likely, that where all are fit; the semi-finals will be these three plus one other. So, again take this into consideration when looking at the match-ups on the WTA and ATP.

I hope that these give some pointers towards where we can find angles to profit and where we can avoid the pitfalls. Tennis is a great sport to trade but not for the faint hearted; the better prepared you are the more successful you will be.

Best of luck – The Accountant.